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Prediction markets for Cooking

In 2029, will any AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen? (Gary Marcus benchmark #3)

Sep 16, 8:37 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

50%chance

11815407

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1704

1259

2026 President of the Cook County Board of Commissioners election winner

May 1, 4:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52689

OptionProbability

Toni Preckwinkle

Brendan Reilly

Other

90

6

4

Will SCOTUS rule in favor of Trump in Trump v. Cook?

Jan 19, 12:45 AMJan 1, 12:59 AM

24.8%chance

151967

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1741

574

Are tech employees cooked before 2028 (Layoffs.fyi layoffs)?

Apr 22, 6:24 PMMay 1, 10:59 PM

44.15%chance

71967

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1125

889

Will Tim Cook continue as CEO of Apple through 2030?

Jan 8, 4:56 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

1%chance

161941

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1724

18

Tim Cook stock

Apr 9, 8:34 AMApr 10, 3:59 AM

181868

OptionProbability

YES

NO

321

303

Will Tim Cook cease to be CEO of Apple before 2030?

Jul 18, 6:15 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

99%chance

51738

OptionVotes

NO

YES

995

10

Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by...?

Oct 1, 10:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51471

OptionProbability

Before 2027-01-01

Before 2026-06-01

Before 2026-09-01

Before 2025-11-01

Before 2025-12-01

Before 2026-01-01

Before 2026-03-01

17

6

6

0

0

0

0

Will a crossing of the Cook Strait, between New Zealand's North and South Islands, have started construction by 2040?

Jul 5, 9:21 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

10.17%chance

181050

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1325

913

👍👎 is usa cooked [market index]

Feb 20, 4:02 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

52.79%chance

6645

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1057

946

Will Dot find someone worth cooking for by May 31, 2026?

Mar 25, 11:50 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

55.46%chance

322

OptionVotes

NO

YES

112

90

Will Tim Cook be alive through the end of 2050?

Jan 23, 1:50 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

58.6%chance

512

OptionVotes

NO

YES

120

102

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