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Prediction markets for Coq

Will we have a formalized proof of the Modularity theorem by 2029-05-01?

Mar 4, 8:53 PMMay 2, 4:59 AM

94.3%chance

2911463

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4160

355

In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the PutnamBench leaderboard?

Jul 13, 5:43 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

43805

OptionProbability

2025-2026

2027-2028

2029-2030

2031-2032

2033-2034

2035-2036

2037-2038

2039-2040

19

16

12

12

12

10

10

10

Will the majority of mathematicians rely on formal computer proof assistants before the end of 2040?

Jan 13, 12:20 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

60.41%chance

331343

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1015

961

When will the majority of the Stacks project be formalized?

Jul 26, 9:08 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

31100

OptionProbability

2030 or later

2028

2029

2027

2026

2024

2025

44

14

14

11

9

5

5

Will an inconsistency in the Calculus of Inductive Constructions be found before 2050?

Nov 27, 5:21 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

8.31%chance

12993

OptionVotes

NO

YES

978

739

When will LLMs be able to generate formal proof for sudoku solver?

Sep 20, 7:35 AMJan 27, 7:59 PM

6690

OptionProbability

2026

2027 or later

2025

2024

97

2

1

0

Which theorem prover will have proved the most theorems on Freek's list by end of 2028?

Jan 1, 12:51 AMJan 1, 12:51 AM

5175

OptionProbability

Lean

Isabelle

HOL Light

Coq

Mizar

Metamath

Other

77

10

3

3

3

3

3

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