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Prediction markets for Coq

Will we have a formalized proof of the Modularity theorem by 2029-05-01?

Mar 4, 8:53 PMMay 2, 4:59 AM

74.07%chance

288339

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1487

736

Will we have a formalized proof of Fermat's last theorem by 2029-05-01?

May 2, 1:38 AMMay 2, 4:59 AM

69.12%chance

455894

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1265

825

Will the majority of mathematicians rely on formal computer proof assistants before the end of 2040?

Jan 13, 12:20 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

60%chance

321333

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1021

951

Will we have a formalized proof of Fermat's last theorem by 2049-05-01?

Nov 26, 10:24 PMMay 2, 4:59 AM

93.71%chance

201313

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1798

904

Will an inconsistency in the Calculus of Inductive Constructions be found before 2050?

Nov 27, 5:21 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

8.31%chance

12993

OptionVotes

NO

YES

978

739

When will LLMs be able to generate formal proof for sudoku solver?

Sep 20, 7:35 AMJan 27, 7:59 PM

6690

OptionProbability

2026

2027 or later

2025

2024

97

2

1

0

When will the majority of the Stacks project be formalized?

Jul 26, 9:08 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

2650

OptionProbability

2030 or later

2026

2027

2028

2029

2024

2025

31

14

14

14

14

6

6

In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the PutnamBench leaderboard?

Jul 13, 5:43 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

2215

OptionProbability

2025-2026

2027-2028

2029-2030

2031-2032

2033-2034

2035-2036

2037-2038

2039-2040

25

15

11

11

11

9

9

9

Which theorem prover will have proved the most theorems on Freek's list by end of 2028?

Jan 1, 12:51 AMJan 1, 12:51 AM

260

OptionProbability

Isabelle

Lean

HOL Light

Coq

Mizar

Metamath

Other

39

33

6

6

6

6

6

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