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Prediction markets for Coq

Will we have a formalized proof of the Modularity theorem by 2029-05-01?

Mar 4, 8:53 PMMay 2, 4:59 AM

74.07%chance

288339

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1487

736

Will we have a formalized proof of Fermat's last theorem by 2029-05-01?

May 2, 1:38 AMMay 2, 4:59 AM

73.88%chance

445819

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1454

750

Which theorem prover will have proved the most theorems on Freek's list by end of 2025?

Jun 16, 7:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

91534

OptionProbability

Isabelle

Lean

HOL Light

Coq

PVS

Mizar

Metamath

nqthm/ACL2

NuPRL/MetaPRL

ProofPower

70

23

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will the majority of mathematicians rely on formal computer proof assistants before the end of 2040?

Jan 13, 12:20 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

60%chance

321333

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1021

951

Will an inconsistency in the Calculus of Inductive Constructions be found before 2050?

Nov 27, 5:21 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

8.31%chance

12993

OptionVotes

NO

YES

978

739

Will we have a formalized proof of Fermat's last theorem by 2049-05-01?

Nov 26, 10:24 PMMay 2, 4:59 AM

91.14%chance

19813

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1298

944

When will LLMs be able to generate formal proof for sudoku solver?

Sep 20, 7:35 AMJan 27, 7:59 PM

6400

OptionProbability

2026

2027 or later

2025

2024

62

29

8

1

In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the PutnamBench leaderboard?

Jul 13, 5:43 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

1150

OptionProbability

2025-2026

2027-2028

2029-2030

2031-2032

2033-2034

2035-2036

2037-2038

2039-2040

13

13

13

13

13

11

11

11

When will the majority of the Stacks project be formalized?

Jul 26, 9:08 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

150

OptionProbability

2030 or later

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

26

12

12

12

12

12

12

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