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Prediction markets for Core Markets

Will Iran's regime fall in 2026?

Dec 31, 12:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.44%chance

19162826013

OptionVotes

YES

NO

37612

4653

At the end of the next 30 days, starting from today (June 7 2026), how many blocks will be broken on mysterybox.art ?

Jun 6, 5:54 AMJun 6, 7:59 PM

3235430

OptionProbability

10-99

100-999

Above 1000

0 - 9

54

26

12

8

Will Dr. Beatriz Villarroel’s “aligned transients” be independently replicated?

Aug 23, 3:36 AMJan 1, 3:31 AM

9.18%chance

1826374

OptionVotes

YES

NO

31489

3182

Will Iran's regime fall before end of 2027?

Feb 12, 6:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12%chance

6115644

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2708

369

By which years will AGI be released (Hendrycks definition >95%)?

Oct 16, 2:41 PMJan 2, 3:04 AM

1110587

OptionProbability

2035

2032

2030

2029

2028

2027

70

52

39

30

19

7

U.S. military or CIA kinetic action against Brazil before end of 2027?

Jun 9, 2:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.68%chance

2910488

OptionVotes

YES

NO

108529

104615

Will a country successfully implement a full universal basic income (UBI) program nationwide by 2030?

Apr 11, 2:59 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

57.03%chance

413354

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1375

444

Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026

Jul 14, 8:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

62.94%chance

372146

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1014

884

2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.97%chance

251329

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1017

852

Will the Bilt Mastercard Remain Stable Through 2030?

Jun 18, 4:09 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

20.73%chance

101260

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2046

535

Will U.S. 401(k) plans widely allow direct investment in cryptocurrencies by 2030?

May 27, 5:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.98%chance

5933

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1831

546

There will be a new business vertical that uses prediction markets as a core feature by 2030

Sep 24, 3:33 PMOct 2, 6:59 AM

52.54%chance

215

OptionVotes

NO

YES

95

85

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