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Prediction markets for Core Markets

Will Iran's regime fall in 2026?

Dec 31, 12:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.53%chance

17652368585

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12956

8415

Will Dr. Beatriz Villarroel’s “aligned transients” be independently replicated?

Aug 23, 3:36 AMJan 1, 3:31 AM

10.04%chance

1723720

OptionVotes

YES

NO

29965

3343

Will Iran's regime fall before end of 2027?

Feb 12, 6:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39%chance

5411043

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1251

800

By which years will AGI be released (Hendrycks definition >95%)?

Oct 16, 2:41 PMJan 2, 3:04 AM

1110587

OptionProbability

2035

2032

2030

2029

2028

2027

70

52

39

30

19

7

Will the Federal Reserve hike interest rates in 2026?

Mar 5, 4:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.49%chance

153583

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1546

647

Will a country successfully implement a full universal basic income (UBI) program nationwide by 2030?

Apr 11, 2:59 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

57.45%chance

413347

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1382

439

Russia-Ukraine ceasefire before end of Iran War

Mar 23, 2:43 AMJan 1, 12:59 AM

16.14%chance

342586

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2280

439

2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.97%chance

251329

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1017

852

Will the Bilt Mastercard Remain Stable Through 2030?

Jun 18, 4:09 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

20.73%chance

101260

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2046

535

Will there be a new AI Startup primarily focused on using AI models for computer control before the end of March?

Mar 4, 2:01 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

38.33%chance

151208

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1118

771

Will U.S. 401(k) plans widely allow direct investment in cryptocurrencies by 2030?

May 27, 5:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.98%chance

5933

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1831

546

There will be a new business vertical that uses prediction markets as a core feature by 2030

Sep 24, 3:33 PMOct 2, 6:59 AM

52.54%chance

215

OptionVotes

NO

YES

95

85

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