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Prediction markets for Core Media

Will Iran's regime fall in 2026?

Dec 31, 12:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.69%chance

19663063542

OptionVotes

YES

NO

46630

4129

Will Iran's regime fall before end of 2027?

Feb 12, 6:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12%chance

6216091

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2708

369

Will an AI-generated movie hit Netflix Top 10 in 2026?

May 18, 6:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

92488

OptionProbability

No AI-generated movie will hit the Top 10 in 2026

Yes, in Q4 2026

Yes, in Q2 2026

Yes, in Q3 2026

93

3

2

2

If I come out as nonbinary, will it go well?

Apr 5, 5:57 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

65.95%chance

632385

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1476

649

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

75.94%chance

321986

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1679

610

How many of the core six 2026 Senate races will Democrats win (AK, IA, ME, MI, OH, TX)?

Aug 15, 6:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

111408

OptionProbability

4

5

3

6

2

0

1

24

21

17

13

12

7

6

Will Stuttgart 21 open in 2031?

Jun 9, 1:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.46%chance

61093

OptionVotes

NO

YES

116

86

Will credible evidence emerge before 2027 that Meta can access the content of WhatsApp messages despite end-to-end encry

Jan 27, 10:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.06%chance

12284

OptionVotes

YES

NO

237

42

Will the following people convert to Christianity before 2030? [Add Answers]

Apr 1, 12:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8275

OptionProbability

Joe Rogan

Elon Musk

Alex O'Conner

Sam Harris

Sam Altman

45

29

28

14

11

CEOs of Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold to all mention Hayek in 2026?

Jan 18, 2:37 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10%chance

5200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

300

33

Will Section 230(c) of the Communications Decency Act be significantly amended or repealed by December 31, 2026?

Oct 24, 2:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.72%chance

3124

OptionVotes

YES

NO

184

54

Will Truth Social be bought before 2029?

Jun 19, 6:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.97%chance

681

OptionVotes

YES

NO

173

58

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