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Prediction markets for Core Media

Will Iran's regime fall in 2026?

Dec 31, 12:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.5%chance

17442350209

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12553

8564

Will Iran's regime fall before end of 2027?

Feb 12, 6:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.22%chance

5310571

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1299

770

If I come out as nonbinary, will it go well?

Apr 5, 5:57 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

65.95%chance

632385

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1476

649

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.89%chance

311936

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1629

626

Is Anthropic woke?

Feb 26, 1:34 AMJul 1, 4:59 AM

82.72%chance

8390

OptionVotes

NO

YES

219

46

Total subscriber size of non‑porn AI romance/companionship subreddits on Reddit on Aug 17, 2026

Aug 26, 6:04 AMAug 17, 11:59 PM

5384

OptionProbability

> 500,000

180,001–280,000

280,001–500,000

≤ 180,000

35

25

25

15

Will credible evidence emerge before 2027 that Meta can access the content of WhatsApp messages despite end-to-end encry

Jan 27, 10:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11%chance

8250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

284

35

CEOs of Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold to all mention Hayek in 2026?

Jan 18, 2:37 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10%chance

5200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

300

33

Will Section 230(c) of the Communications Decency Act be significantly amended or repealed by December 31, 2026?

Oct 24, 2:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.72%chance

3124

OptionVotes

YES

NO

184

54

Will @Firepup650 endorse effective altruism by 2027?

Oct 17, 3:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.44%chance

245

OptionVotes

YES

NO

132

76

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