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Prediction markets for Core Product

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.89%chance

311936

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1629

626

Holodeck When?

Jun 3, 6:30 PMJan 6, 7:59 AM

81192

OptionProbability

2028

2027

2029

2026

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034 or 2035

2036-2040

2024 or 2025

After 2040 or never

18

14

14

7

7

6

6

6

6

6

5

5

Will atomically precise manufacturing systems be developed before 2030?

Apr 2, 9:40 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

13.85%chance

16849

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1336

904

Will TIDAL be discontinued as a music streaming service before the end of 2030?

Dec 9, 12:46 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50.31%chance

20612

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1158

794

YouTube, A social Networking site will still be a Google product till Feb. 24 2026

Dec 7, 5:34 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

95.97%chance

3388

OptionVotes

NO

YES

488

20

Total subscriber size of non‑porn AI romance/companionship subreddits on Reddit on Aug 17, 2026

Aug 26, 6:04 AMAug 17, 11:59 PM

5384

OptionProbability

> 500,000

180,001–280,000

280,001–500,000

≤ 180,000

35

25

25

15

Will the share of global silver production disrupted by violence in Mexico exceed 10% on May 1, 2026?

Mar 2, 9:08 PMMay 1, 9:07 PM

17.12%chance

2120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

220

45

Will the share of global silver production disrupted by violence in Mexico exceed 15% on May 1, 2026?

Mar 2, 9:08 PMMay 1, 9:07 PM

18.48%chance

1110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

210

48

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

50.47%chance

3107

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

1041

Will the share of global silver production disrupted by violence in Mexico exceed 1.0% on April 1, 2026?

Mar 2, 9:07 PMApr 1, 9:07 PM

32.74%chance

280

OptionVotes

YES

NO

143

70

Will the share of global silver production disrupted by violence in Mexico exceed 5% on May 1, 2026?

Mar 2, 9:08 PMMay 1, 9:07 PM

37.17%chance

130

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

77

Will at least one major LLM publicly document graph-based RAG as a core part of its production architecture in 2026?

Jan 20, 10:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

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