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Prediction markets for Core Product

On December 31, 2025, will Google, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, or X accept crypto as a payment?

Jan 22, 3:28 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

27.15%chance

4311069

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12703

8784

Will Google announce the closure of Google Cloud on or before 2025

Sep 25, 1:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.45%chance

235429

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4802

761

Will OpenAI announce a web browser by the end of August?

Jul 10, 1:26 AMAug 31, 11:59 PM

10.63%chance

345077

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2899

345

Will Google emoji kitchen include combos for the strong arm emoji 💪 by mid 2026?

Jan 2, 8:16 AMJun 30, 9:59 PM

18.21%chance

312860

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2119

472

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.89%chance

311936

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1629

626

Holodeck When?

Jun 3, 6:30 PMJan 6, 7:59 AM

81192

OptionProbability

2028

2027

2029

2026

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034 or 2035

2036-2040

2024 or 2025

After 2040 or never

18

14

14

7

7

6

6

6

6

6

5

5

When will Apple, Inc. turn Apple Intelligence into a paid, premium service and begin charging users for access?

Jun 11, 2:34 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

161081

OptionProbability

2028+ or never

2027

2026

2025

2024

55

21

11

10

3

Will atomically precise manufacturing systems be developed before 2030?

Apr 2, 9:40 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

13.85%chance

16849

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1336

904

Will TIDAL be discontinued as a music streaming service before the end of 2030?

Dec 9, 12:46 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

55.88%chance

20512

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1058

907

Will Democrats (2028 Election) pivot to pro-growth Abundance Policies (Ezra Klein + Derek Thompson) 🇺🇸🦾🤑🦅🏗️🏛️

Mar 6, 3:41 AMNov 30, 12:59 PM

41.79%chance

8159

OptionVotes

YES

NO

118

85

Will atomically precise manufacturing systems be developed before 2040?

Apr 2, 9:41 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

59%chance

327

OptionVotes

NO

YES

102

80

Will Hubris ship in a non-Oxide Computer Company product this decade?

Sep 1, 12:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45.25%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

75

65

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