Core Product News

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.89%chance

311936

OptionVotes

YES

1629

626

Will Apple ship a Gemini-powered Siri update to iPhones in 2026?

Mar 26, 11:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52%chance

121212

OptionVotes

YES

243

149

Holodeck When?

Jun 3, 6:30 PMJan 6, 7:59 AM

81192

OptionProbability

2028

2027

2029

2026

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034 or 2035

2036-2040

2024 or 2025

After 2040 or never

When will Apple, Inc. turn Apple Intelligence into a paid, premium service and begin charging users for access?

Jun 11, 2:34 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

161081

OptionProbability

2028+ or never

2027

2026

2025

2024

Will atomically precise manufacturing systems be developed before 2030?

Apr 2, 9:40 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

13.85%chance

16849

OptionVotes

YES

1336

904

Will TIDAL be discontinued as a music streaming service before the end of 2030?

Dec 9, 12:46 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50.31%chance

20612

OptionVotes

YES

1158

794

Total subscriber size of non‑porn AI romance/companionship subreddits on Reddit on Aug 17, 2026

Aug 26, 6:04 AMAug 17, 11:59 PM

5384

OptionProbability

> 500,000

180,001–280,000

280,001–500,000

≤ 180,000

Meta's prediction platform PROP BETS.

Jun 23, 7:54 PMDec 31, 8:48 PM

6315

OptionProbability

Meta will launch a standalone prediction market app by end of 2026

Meta's prediction market platform will flop.

Meta will integrate prediction markets into Facebook or Instagram

Which happens first? [Ads in AI][OpenAI vs Anthropic]

Feb 9, 7:33 PMFeb 10, 5:59 AM

6211

OptionProbability

OpenAI significantly expands the scope of Ads in ChatGPT

OpenAI removes ads in ChatGPT

Anthropic adds Ads in one of their primary AI apps (currently Claude)

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.12%chance

4157

OptionVotes

YES

1091

1011

Will atomically precise manufacturing systems be developed before 2040?

Apr 2, 9:41 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

59%chance

327

OptionVotes

YES

102

Will at least one major LLM publicly document graph-based RAG as a core part of its production architecture in 2026?

Jan 20, 10:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

110

Core Product News

Prediction markets for Core Product

Prediction markets for Core Product

Prediction markets for Core Product

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Will Apple ship a Gemini-powered Siri update to iPhones in 2026?

Holodeck When?

When will Apple, Inc. turn Apple Intelligence into a paid, premium service and begin charging users for access?

Will atomically precise manufacturing systems be developed before 2030?

Will TIDAL be discontinued as a music streaming service before the end of 2030?

Total subscriber size of non‑porn AI romance/companionship subreddits on Reddit on Aug 17, 2026

Meta's prediction platform PROP BETS.

Which happens first? [Ads in AI][OpenAI vs Anthropic]

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Will atomically precise manufacturing systems be developed before 2040?

Will at least one major LLM publicly document graph-based RAG as a core part of its production architecture in 2026?

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