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Prediction markets for Correct The Record

Will the leaked OpenAI "GPT 5.6 Sol" proof that nonsofic groups exist be verified as correct?

Aug 1, 6:35 AMAug 1, 6:31 AM

97.77%chance

914025

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6625

151

Skrillex Stock

May 15, 8:54 AMMay 16, 3:59 AM

47577

OptionProbability

NO

YES

115

43

Will Andrew Tate be in jail through the end of August?

Jul 19, 1:11 AMAug 31, 11:59 PM

92.01%chance

244492

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3392

295

Will a production car achieve 0-60 mph in less than a second in 2026 or earlier?

Mar 3, 12:03 PMJan 15, 11:59 PM

4.66%chance

131231

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1027

60

Will @EliezerYudkowsky profit on net across all #superconductivity markets?

Aug 9, 11:49 PMFeb 1, 12:59 PM

75.45%chance

151123

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1373

767

When will the first "Breakthrough” problem in FrontierMath: Open Problems be solved?

Jul 28, 6:48 AMFeb 1, 9:59 PM

41008

OptionProbability

Before Jan 2030

Before Jul 2028

Before Jan 2029

Before Jul 2029

Before Jan 2028

Before Jul 2027

Before Jan 2027

99

98

98

98

97

77

69

Will Elon Musk be worth more than 2 Trillion Dollars before 2027?

Jun 23, 12:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.56%chance

23883

OptionVotes

YES

NO

412

24

Leap: ECI record beaten by >= 9 points before 2028?

Aug 8, 7:13 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

10.38%chance

2850

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1850

857

When will the first “Major advance” problem in FrontierMath: Open Problems be solved?

Jul 28, 6:45 AMFeb 1, 9:59 PM

2298

OptionProbability

Before Jan 2030

Before Jul 2029

Before Jan 2029

Before Jul 2028

Before Jan 2028

Before Jul 2027

Before Jan 2027

96

92

87

83

76

57

41

How many votes will Dean Roy get?

May 23, 5:22 PMNov 10, 6:17 PM

2182

OptionProbability

6,000-29,999

1,000-5,999

30,000+

<100

100-999

36

25

22

9

8

Will a production car achieve 0-60 mph in less than a second in 2028 or earlier?

Mar 3, 12:06 PMJan 15, 11:59 PM

14.08%chance

3147

OptionVotes

YES

NO

247

40

Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?

Jul 10, 2:06 AMSep 30, 8:05 PM

33.28%chance

420

OptionVotes

YES

NO

119

89

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