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Prediction markets for Cosmo

How will the Hubble Tension ("crisis in cosmology") be resolved?

Mar 3, 7:43 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

504345

OptionProbability

Current Cosmic Ladder estimates are wrong

Current Cosmic Microwave Background estimates are wrong

Both are wrong

45

32

23

Will there be fewer than 2 Russian cosmonauts in the International Space Station crew in December 2025?

Jul 26, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19.83%chance

282187

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1569

781

Will the Timescape theory seduce cosmologists?

Jan 15, 3:23 PMJan 22, 10:59 PM

16.17%chance

122165

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2277

439

In the Crisis in Cosmology, the CMBR answer is closer to correct than the supernovae results

Oct 27, 2:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50.12%chance

151633

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1045

982

In 50 years, what will most cosmologists believe the age of the Universe is?

Aug 20, 9:02 PMAug 21, 3:59 AM

111104

OptionProbability

13.787 ± 1 Gy

Infinite (Big Bounce)

Between 12.5 and 13 billion years

Other

resolves no

68

13

8

8

4

Will a major cosmological simulation be AI-accelerated by the end of 2027?

Oct 12, 1:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

56.14%chance

28828

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1185

637

Is the tgd model of cosmology (Matti pitkanen) correct

Apr 22, 4:21 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17.16%chance

2160

OptionVotes

YES

NO

298

71

What will be the main origin of the S8 tension in Cosmology?

Nov 7, 3:36 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

323

OptionProbability

Systematics - Clustering

Systematics - Lensing

New Physics - Late Universe

Other

New Physics - Early Universe

Projection effects

Systematics - CMB

24

20

15

11

10

10

10

Which version of Cosmos do you prefer?

Aug 24, 10:33 PM

50

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