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Prediction markets for Cosmo

How will the Hubble Tension ("crisis in cosmology") be resolved?

Mar 3, 7:43 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

534500

OptionProbability

Current Cosmic Ladder estimates are wrong

Current Cosmic Microwave Background estimates are wrong

Both are wrong

52

31

17

Will the Timescape theory seduce cosmologists?

Jan 15, 3:23 PMJan 22, 10:59 PM

14.49%chance

173375

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2430

412

Will Euclid space telescope lower my credence in the standard model of cosmology?

Jul 23, 4:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.74%chance

321956

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6059

5939

In the Crisis in Cosmology, the CMBR answer is closer to correct than the supernovae results

Oct 27, 2:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50.12%chance

151633

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1045

982

In 50 years, what will most cosmologists believe the age of the Universe is?

Aug 20, 9:02 PMAug 21, 3:59 AM

111104

OptionProbability

13.787 ± 1 Gy

Infinite (Big Bounce)

Between 12.5 and 13 billion years

Other

resolves no

68

13

8

8

4

Will a major cosmological simulation be AI-accelerated by the end of 2027?

Oct 12, 1:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

52.67%chance

28878

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1235

577

How will the cosmological lithium problem be solved?

Jul 26, 3:21 AMJul 26, 3:13 AM

8255

OptionProbability

Systematic errors in stellar abundance observations

Varying fundamental constants

Stellar depletion (astrophysical solution)

Nuclear physics: Unknown/revised BBN reaction rates

Sterile neutrinos

Inhomogeneous cosmology

Decaying or annihilating dark matter

59

56

53

53

50

38

26

Is the tgd model of cosmology (Matti pitkanen) correct

Apr 22, 4:21 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17.16%chance

2160

OptionVotes

YES

NO

298

71

Will Plesetsk cosmodrome got hit with drone/missile by the end of 2026?

Aug 24, 6:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.52%chance

295

OptionVotes

YES

NO

155

65

What will be the main origin of the S8 tension in Cosmology?

Nov 7, 3:36 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

570

OptionProbability

Other

New Physics - Late Universe

New Physics - Early Universe

Systematics - Clustering

Systematics - Lensing

Projection effects

Systematics - CMB

22

21

16

15

14

6

6

Detection of cosmological primordial tensor-to-scalar ratio r>0.003 by EOY 2030?

Aug 18, 12:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.99%chance

111

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111

97

Which version of Cosmos do you prefer?

Aug 24, 10:33 PM

60

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