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Prediction markets for Cost of Living

How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀

Feb 24, 12:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1510936

OptionProbability

None

(0, 200]

(200, 600]

(600, 1200]

(1200, 2500]

(2500, 5000]

(5000, 10000]

(10000, 15000]

(15000, 24000]

More than $24,000

61

23

8

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.13%chance

215978

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10497

2690

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.68%chance

133709

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6632

3220

Will a single parent in Brazil earn at least one minimum wage from Bolsa Família by 2029?

Sep 25, 11:44 AMJan 1, 3:59 AM

6.39%chance

72644

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4431

11

Will I touch a “2026” penny in 2026?

Feb 10, 7:57 PMJan 1, 8:05 AM

8.45%chance

152561

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3293

304

[Ṁ200 subsidy] Will the BBC licence fee be axed by the end of 2028?

Aug 3, 11:25 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

26.65%chance

241455

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1185

903

Which issues will Donald Trump propose or imply can be solved with tariffs?

Jan 25, 11:29 PMFeb 2, 10:59 PM

9287

OptionProbability

Immigration

Unemployment

High taxes

Budget deficit

US leadership in AI

Livings costs

Ukraine conflict

Crime

Inflation

Housing costs

Healthcare

Gaza conflict

100

93

90

90

82

80

80

78

67

31

28

25

When will human population first decrease?

Jul 17, 1:13 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

6255

OptionProbability

Human population will not decrease before 2100

2080-2099

2060-2079

2020-2039

2040-2059

26

23

18

16

16

Will Microsoft close or divest itself of Rare in 2026?

Jun 15, 7:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.31%chance

11214

OptionVotes

YES

NO

128

92

When will I be able to purchase a self-driving Toyota (or Lexus) in the USA?

Jun 2, 2:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4142

OptionProbability

2031-2032

2033-2034

2029-2030

2035-2036

2037-2038

2039-2040

2027-2028

Other

16

16

13

13

13

11

10

10

Non-celebrity Vintage Boss Katana amplifier sells for more than price of 20 metric tons of iron ore or scrap by 2050

Dec 21, 12:12 AMDec 28, 2:59 PM

51.5%chance

440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

116

102

When will the US enact a universal basic income of at least $500/month per adult?

Sep 30, 12:07 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

335

OptionProbability

Not by the end of 2050

2041–2050

2037–2040

2033–2036

2026–2028

2029–2032

75

14

5

3

1

1

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