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Prediction markets for Cost of Living

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.01%chance

175392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9916

2845

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.96%chance

123209

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6132

3376

Will a single parent in Brazil earn at least one minimum wage from Bolsa Família by 2029?

Sep 25, 11:44 AMJan 1, 3:59 AM

40.23%chance

62299

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4086

101

Will I touch a “2026” penny in 2026?

Feb 10, 7:57 PMJan 1, 8:05 AM

17.55%chance

141436

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2168

461

[Ṁ200 subsidy] Will the BBC licence fee be axed by the end of 2028?

Aug 3, 11:25 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

30.74%chance

231305

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1035

963

How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀

Feb 24, 12:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11946

OptionProbability

(0, 200]

None

(200, 600]

(600, 1200]

(1200, 2500]

(2500, 5000]

(5000, 10000]

(10000, 15000]

(15000, 24000]

More than $24,000

34

25

9

6

5

5

5

5

4

4

Which issues will Donald Trump propose or imply can be solved with tariffs?

Jan 25, 11:29 PMFeb 2, 10:59 PM

8251

OptionProbability

Immigration

Unemployment

High taxes

Budget deficit

US leadership in AI

Livings costs

Crime

Inflation

Housing costs

Healthcare

Gaza conflict

Ukraine conflict

100

93

90

90

82

80

78

67

31

28

25

24

Will the Labour party be in office for more than 4 years before the next general election?

Aug 26, 3:54 PMJul 4, 3:49 PM

74%chance

4154

OptionVotes

NO

YES

169

59

Will live outcome rates for dogs and cats entering US shelters be 90% or higher in 2025?

Sep 22, 2:31 AMSep 1, 3:59 AM

27.47%chance

349

OptionVotes

YES

NO

162

85

How the living conditions in the venezuela be in the future?

Jan 16, 8:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

315

OptionProbability

Better future

Worse future

Same Future

38

35

27

[poll/stock - never resolves] How do Americans view Donald Trump’s political rhetoric (independent of politics)?

Dec 29, 7:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

211

OptionProbability

Negative

Positive

Agnostic/Neutral

45

28

28

What issues should Jason Boyce, candidate for Oregon House District 45, focus on?

Jul 5, 5:29 AMMay 20, 5:27 AM

11

OptionProbability

Homelessness

Healthcare

Poverty

High cost of living

27

24

24

24

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