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Prediction markets for Cost of Living

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.01%chance

175392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9916

2845

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.96%chance

123209

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6132

3376

Will GiveWell's recommendations age poorly, by 2026?

Nov 24, 3:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.84%chance

362540

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3755

764

Will cultured meat be affordably available in Canada before the end of 2025?

Jan 1, 8:08 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

7.61%chance

142485

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3485

287

Will a single parent in Brazil earn at least one minimum wage from Bolsa Família by 2029?

Sep 25, 11:44 AMJan 1, 3:59 AM

40.23%chance

62299

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4086

101

Will I touch a “2025” penny in 2025?

Feb 10, 7:02 PMJan 1, 8:05 AM

49.18%chance

151927

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1017

984

[Ṁ200 subsidy] Will the BBC licence fee be axed by the end of 2028?

Aug 3, 11:25 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

30.74%chance

231305

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1035

963

Will I touch a “2026” penny in 2026?

Feb 10, 7:57 PMJan 1, 8:05 AM

22.75%chance

111111

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1843

543

How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀

Feb 24, 12:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11946

OptionProbability

(0, 200]

None

(200, 600]

(600, 1200]

(1200, 2500]

(2500, 5000]

(5000, 10000]

(10000, 15000]

(15000, 24000]

More than $24,000

34

25

9

6

5

5

5

5

4

4

Will China turn on Russia before 2030?

Jan 13, 4:38 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

28.86%chance

10428

OptionVotes

YES

NO

157

64

Which issues will Donald Trump propose or imply can be solved with tariffs?

Jan 25, 11:29 PMFeb 2, 10:59 PM

8251

OptionProbability

Immigration

Unemployment

High taxes

Budget deficit

US leadership in AI

Livings costs

Crime

Inflation

Housing costs

Healthcare

Gaza conflict

Ukraine conflict

100

93

90

90

82

80

78

67

31

28

25

24

What issues should Jason Boyce, candidate for Oregon House District 45, focus on?

Jul 5, 5:29 AMMay 20, 5:27 AM

11

OptionProbability

Homelessness

Healthcare

Poverty

High cost of living

27

24

24

24

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