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Prediction markets for CoT

Will the Northern White Rhinoceros (Ceratotherium simum cottoni) become Extinct by 2100?

Feb 11, 1:07 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

85.22%chance

81306

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1248

123

Before 2027, will OpenAI release a reasoning model that generates image tokens in its CoT?

Dec 13, 1:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.23%chance

91167

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1871

535

Will "Estimating No-CoT Task-Completion Time Horizo..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jun 11, 2:49 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

6.6%chance

31066

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2050

890

What will be the cool word for "cool" in 2032?

Sep 20, 1:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

25483

OptionProbability

cool

6 7

Other

based

retro

spice

sigma

heat

whale

TRANCHE

loose

numb

left

sunk

cought

caught

cot

warm

tepid

luke

damp

jank

sweet

sick

gas

沉着的 chénzhuóde

cloe

swag

31

16

16

11

10

5

4

2

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will research demonstrate an advantage to uninterpretable CoT before 2030?

Mar 15, 11:34 AMJan 31, 8:59 PM

70.05%chance

10320

OptionVotes

NO

YES

153

65

Will "Measuring no CoT math time horizon (single fo..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 26, 10:18 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.67%chance

3290

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1106

986

In what years will CoT monitoring fail for frontier AI?

Sep 8, 11:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6217

OptionProbability

2026

2028-2029

2030-2035

2027

2035-2040

2040-2050

2025

63

52

52

46

46

46

0

Will "Recent LLMs can do 2-hop and 3-hop latent (no..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jan 3, 10:23 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.53%chance

3131

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1036

996

Will Jack Harlow be purchase a cottage in 2027?

Mar 19, 7:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.23%chance

3131

OptionVotes

NO

YES

113

88

Will "Anthropic repeatedly accidentally trained aga..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Apr 14, 10:15 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.21%chance

6118

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1060

991

Will "Recent LLMs can use filler tokens or problem ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 23, 7:13 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.83%chance

2111

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1091

986

Will "Optimizing The Final Output Can Obfuscate CoT..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 31, 1:32 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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