Counter AI News

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Mar 7, 1:33 AMMar 14, 1:28 AM

20049319

OptionProbability

YES - The AI, without being prompted to, took actions to breach its sandbox, including to gain crypto and an external connection

NO - The authors are wrong/lying and there was no such hack

NO - The servers were hacked by an outside party, perhaps via prompt injection

NO - An employee (or other insider) was crypto-mining and made it look like the LLM

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Mar 3, 4:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

685340

OptionProbability

Deepmind/Google/Alphabet

Anthropic

OpenAI/Microsoft

Another specific company (not one of the above or a subsidiary)

xAI or another Elon Musk-led AI initiative

A government or coalition of governments

Meta (Facebook) AI Research

A university/academic institute/independent researcher/non-profit organization or a combination of these

Will some AIs have a right to own property in the United States before 2050?

Aug 6, 12:37 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31.11%chance

251508

OptionVotes

YES

1002

978

Will AI progress slow down before July 2027 due to an agreement to 'pace the frontier'?

Sep 12, 3:14 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

27.62%chance

101309

OptionVotes

YES

1619

618

Will anyone make a YouTube video seriously claiming to "debunk" Eliezer Yudkowsky on AI risk?

Apr 4, 6:04 PMApr 4, 10:59 PM

85.48%chance

17799

OptionVotes

YES

1308

920

How many users will Bluesky have by the end of 2026? 🦋

Jul 24, 2:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7669

OptionProbability

46+ million

47+ million

48+ million

49+ million

100

Will my Etsy shop RottingDaisyCo reach 100 sales before January 1st 2027?

Oct 31, 8:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.01%chance

3398

OptionVotes

YES

1393

718

By 2041, will having $10M+ in personal financial wealth provide little or no material lifestyle advantage over 0 wealth?

Jul 28, 11:27 PMJan 1, 9:00 AM

15.31%chance

7331

OptionVotes

YES

235

Will an AI be able to write a prescription for medication in the US or a EU member country by 2030?

May 11, 7:13 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

15.11%chance

5131

OptionVotes

YES

223

Will Myanmar's civil war end before EOY 2027?

Aug 10, 11:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.62%chance

699

OptionVotes

YES

175

Will Manifold reduce slop markets before 2027?

Jul 9, 1:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.64%chance

325

OptionVotes

YES

125

Will <32gb open model match opus 5.5 at February 2027?

Oct 10, 7:08 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

325

OptionProbability

[reserved 2]

[reserved 3]

SWE bench

My subjective judgement

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Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Will some AIs have a right to own property in the United States before 2050?

Will AI progress slow down before July 2027 due to an agreement to 'pace the frontier'?

Will anyone make a YouTube video seriously claiming to "debunk" Eliezer Yudkowsky on AI risk?

How many users will Bluesky have by the end of 2026? 🦋

Will my Etsy shop RottingDaisyCo reach 100 sales before January 1st 2027?

By 2041, will having $10M+ in personal financial wealth provide little or no material lifestyle advantage over 0 wealth?

Will an AI be able to write a prescription for medication in the US or a EU member country by 2030?

Will Myanmar's civil war end before EOY 2027?

Will Manifold reduce slop markets before 2027?

Will <32gb open model match opus 5.5 at February 2027?

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