Counter AI News

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Mar 7, 1:33 AMMar 14, 1:28 AM

19947933

OptionProbability

YES - The AI, without being prompted to, took actions to breach its sandbox, including to gain crypto and an external connection

NO - The authors are wrong/lying and there was no such hack

NO - The servers were hacked by an outside party, perhaps via prompt injection

NO - An employee (or other insider) was crypto-mining and made it look like the LLM

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Mar 3, 4:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

685340

OptionProbability

Deepmind/Google/Alphabet

Anthropic

OpenAI/Microsoft

Another specific company (not one of the above or a subsidiary)

xAI or another Elon Musk-led AI initiative

A government or coalition of governments

Meta (Facebook) AI Research

A university/academic institute/independent researcher/non-profit organization or a combination of these

Will some AIs have a right to own property in the United States before 2050?

Aug 6, 12:37 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31.11%chance

251508

OptionVotes

YES

1002

978

Will AI progress slow down before July 2027 due to an agreement to 'pace the frontier'?

Sep 12, 3:14 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

27.62%chance

101309

OptionVotes

YES

1619

618

Will anyone make a YouTube video seriously claiming to "debunk" Eliezer Yudkowsky on AI risk?

Apr 4, 6:04 PMApr 4, 10:59 PM

85.48%chance

17799

OptionVotes

YES

1308

920

How many users will Bluesky have by the end of 2026? 🦋

Jul 24, 2:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7627

OptionProbability

46+ million

47+ million

48+ million

49+ million

100

How many Erdős problems will be marked solved on erdosproblems.com at the end of 2026?

Aug 11, 2:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10566

OptionProbability

630–659

≤599

600–629

700+

660–699

By 2041, will having $10M+ in personal financial wealth provide little or no material lifestyle advantage over 0 wealth?

Jul 28, 11:27 PMJan 1, 9:00 AM

15.31%chance

7331

OptionVotes

YES

235

Will an AI be able to write a prescription for medication in the US or a EU member country by 2030?

May 11, 7:13 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

15.11%chance

5131

OptionVotes

YES

223

Will Myanmar's civil war end before EOY 2027?

Aug 10, 11:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.62%chance

699

OptionVotes

YES

175

Will Manifold reduce slop markets before 2027?

Jul 9, 1:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.64%chance

325

OptionVotes

YES

125

Will Kaeberlein, Sinclair, Jose Luis Ricon, Zhavoronkov, Lada Nuzhna, Bryan Johnson, Guerente all DnD campaign by 2035?

Dec 3, 4:22 PM

Counter AI News

Prediction markets for Counter AI

Prediction markets for Counter AI

Prediction markets for Counter AI

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Will some AIs have a right to own property in the United States before 2050?

Will AI progress slow down before July 2027 due to an agreement to 'pace the frontier'?

Will anyone make a YouTube video seriously claiming to "debunk" Eliezer Yudkowsky on AI risk?

How many users will Bluesky have by the end of 2026? 🦋

How many Erdős problems will be marked solved on erdosproblems.com at the end of 2026?

By 2041, will having $10M+ in personal financial wealth provide little or no material lifestyle advantage over 0 wealth?

Will an AI be able to write a prescription for medication in the US or a EU member country by 2030?

Will Myanmar's civil war end before EOY 2027?

Will Manifold reduce slop markets before 2027?

Will Kaeberlein, Sinclair, Jose Luis Ricon, Zhavoronkov, Lada Nuzhna, Bryan Johnson, Guerente all DnD campaign by 2035?

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