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Top stories

FDA Clears New Covid Shots, Limits Them to Seniors and High-Risk Groups

US Domestic Policy

FDA Clears New Covid Shots, Limits Them to Seniors and High-Risk Groups

Authors

94

3 months ago

Study Weakens RFK Jr. Conflict Claims as Pediatricians Defy CDC on Covid Shots

US Domestic Policy

Study Weakens RFK Jr. Conflict Claims as Pediatricians Defy CDC on Covid Shots

Authors

72

4 months ago

Global Study Finds Youth Now Unhappier Than Middle-Aged Adults

Global Study Finds Youth Now Unhappier Than Middle-Aged Adults

Authors

7

3 months ago

Qantas Fined Record A$90 Million for Illegal 2020 Outsourcing

Authors

34

4 months ago

Prediction markets for Covid

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?

Sep 1, 3:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

31.22%chance

21224504845

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17437

5215

Scott Alexander is planning a COVID origins bet. If there is a debate, will judges conclude COVID came from a lab leak?

Apr 9, 1:33 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.1%chance

194280263

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10838

9495

Will my resolution of the COVID-19 lab leak market be controversial?

Mar 31, 12:45 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

28.12%chance

9439617

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1331

929

Will US life expectancy recover from its 2020-2021 "Covid" drop to exceed its 2019 level by 2029?

Oct 24, 3:48 AMDec 31, 2:59 PM

80%chance

4625903

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3882

2007

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory? (2050 Poll)

Mar 26, 12:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.21%chance

433490

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1308

613

Will I test positive for COVID by end of 2025?

Mar 17, 2:06 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.9%chance

402945

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2652

210

Covid a lab leak?

Sep 24, 12:31 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

59.76%chance

291883

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1179

856

In 2035, will there be a scientific consensus that at least 1000 Americans died as a direct result of the Covid vaccine?

Sep 16, 4:24 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

62.95%chance

391876

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1339

719

If Covid is a lab leak, which lab did it leak from?

Dec 30, 11:24 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

221641

OptionProbability

Wuhan Institute of Virology, Wuchang campus

Wuhan Institute of Virology, Jiangxia campus

Wuhan CDC

UNC

Fort Detrick

Wuhan Institute of Biological Products

Wuhan University

Other

VECTOR lab in Russia

Canadian National Microbiology Lab in Winnipeg, Manitoba

Huazhong Agricultural University in Wuhan

30

15

15

13

11

5

4

3

2

2

2

Will a global pandemic of a novel infectious disease, similar to COVID-19, occur by 2030?

Jan 11, 6:53 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

29.37%chance

311557

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1017

892

Will there be a pandemic at least as deadly as COVID-19 by March 1st 2044?

Feb 29, 11:21 AMMar 1, 11:59 PM

63.21%chance

241238

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1488

437

Scientists or influencers outside China have been paid by the CCP to advocate for a natural origin of Covid 19.

Oct 1, 11:05 PMOct 9, 3:59 AM

62.31%chance

13532

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1286

778

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