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OptionProbability
Cape Buffalo - Syncerus caffer caffer
Wolverine - Gulo gulo 🥉🥉
Yellow-Lipped Sea Krait - Laticauda colubrina 🥉
Sonoran Desert Sidewinder - Crotalus cerastes cercobombus
Coyote - Canis latrans
[⚔️Underdog] Sulfur Cave Molly - Poecilia sulphuraria 🥉🥉
Common Bed Bug - Cimex lectularius
Brown Rat - Rattus norvegicus 🥉
House Mouse - Mus musculus domesticus
[⚔️Frontrunner] Sea Otter - Enhydra lutris
❌Defeated: Lion - Panthera leo 🥈🥉🥉[beat by Dolphin]
❌Defeated: Bornean orangutan - Pongo pygmaeus [beat by Giant Nematode]
❌Defeated: Hippopotamus - Hippopotamus amphibius 🥈🥈🥈 [beat by Brown Rat]
❌Defeated: Dog - Canis familiaris 🥉🥈 [beat by Leopard seal]
❌Defeated: Cat - Felis catus 🥉🥉🥉 [beat by Meerkat]
❌Defeated: Tiger - Panthera tigris 🥈🥈 [beat by Sulfur Cave Molly]
❌Defeated: Dolphin - Tursiops truncatus 🥉 [beat by Leopard Seal]
❌Defeated: Elephant - Loxodonta africana 🥈🥈[beat by Giant Nematode]
❌Defeated: Giant Panda - Ailuropoda melanoleuca [beat by Polar Bear]
❌Defeated: Penguin - Aptenodytes forsteri 🥉 [beat by Wolverine]
❌Defeated: Axolotl - Ambystoma mexicanum [beat by Great black-backed gull]
❌Defeated: Orca - Orcinus orca [beat by Housefly]
❌Defeated: Honey Badger - Mellivora capensis 🥈 [beat by Meerkat]
❌Defeated: Hotwheels sisyphus spider - Hotwheels sisyphus [beat by Saltwater Crocodile]
❌Defeated: Polar Bear - Ursus maritimus 🥈 [beat byt Cat]
❌Defeated: Saltwater Crocodile - Crocodylus porosus 🥈🥈🥈🥈 [beat by Red Fox]
🚫Ineligible: Water bear - Milnesium tardigradum
❌Defeated: Ping-Pong Tree Sponge - Chondrocladia concrescens 🥉 [beat by Prehistoric Elephant]
🚫Ineligible: human [I'm shortening this]
🚫Ineligible: Tardigrade (LFG)
❌Defeated: Great White Shark - Carcharodon carcharias [beat by Lion]
🚫Ineligible: [This animal was edited in bad faith]
❌Defeated: Blue Whale - Balaenoptera musculus [beat by Housefly]
❌Defeated: Wolf - Canis lupus [beat by Prehistoric Elephant]
❌Defeated: Red Fox - Vulpes vulpes 🥉🥈 [beat by Giant Pacific Octopus]
❌Defeated: Cliff Swallow - Petrochelidon pyrrhonota [beat by Elephant]
❌Defeated: Platypus - Ornithorhynchus anatinus 🥉🥉 [beat by Western Lowland Gorilla]
❌Defeated: Haast's Eagle - Hieraaetus moorei [beat by Prehistoric Elephant]
❌Defeated: Giant Nematode - Placentonema gigantissima 🥉🥉 [beat by Wolverine]
❌Defeated: Flightless Elephant Bird - Aepyornis maximus [beat by Saltwater Crocodile]
❌Defeated: Prehistoric Elephant - Palaeoloxodon namadicus [beat by Dog]🥉🥉🥈
❌Defeated: Pompeii Worm - Alvinella pompejana [beat by Cat]
❌Defeated: Sperm Whale - Physeter macrocephalus [beat by Ice Worm]
❌Defeated: Great evening bat - Ia io [beat by Lion]
❌Defeated: Funny valentine spider - Funny valentine [beat by Dermophis donaldtrumpi Caecilian]
❌Defeated: Yi qi dinosaur - Yi qi [beat by Elephant]
❌Defeated: Aha ha wasp - Aha ha [beat by Hippopotamus]
❌Defeated: Penis snake - Atretochoana eiselti [beat by Cat]
❌Defeated: Colossal Whale - Perucetus colossus [beat by Meerkat]
❌Defeated: Cuban Cockroach - Panchlora nivea [beat by Hippopotamus]
❌Defeated: Panther Chameleon - Furcifer pardalis [beat by Saltwater Crocodile]
❌Defeated: Giant Dragonfly - Meganeuropsis permiana [beat by Red Fox]
❌Defeated: Giant Pacific Octopus - Enteroctopus dofleini 🥉[beat by Ice Worm]
❌Defeated: Triceratops - Triceratops horridus [beat by Red Volcano Sponge]
❌Defeated: Giant Pterosaur - Quetzalcoatlus northropi [beat by Ping-Pong Tree Sponge]
❌Defeated: Lesser Flamingo - Phoeniconaias minor [beat by Honey Badger]
❌Defeated: Kiwi - Apteryx australis [beat by Dog]
❌Defeated: Red Volcano Sponge - Acarnus Erithacus 🥉[beat by Platypus]
❌Defeated: Ice Worm - Mesenchytraeus solifugus 🥉🥉[beat by Tiger]
❌Defeated: Meerkat - Suricata suricatta 🥉🥉🥉 [beat by Yellow-Lipped Sea Krait]
❌Defeated: Housefly - Musca domestica 🥉🥉🥉 [beat by Tiger]
❌Defeated: Feral pigeon - Columba livia urbana [beat by Housefly]
❌Defeated: Great black-backed gull - Larus marinus 🥉 [beat by Western lowland gorilla]
❌Defeated: Leopard seal - Hydrurga leptonyx 🥉🥈 [beat by Sulfur Cave Molly]
❌Defeated: Western lowland gorilla - Gorilla gorilla gorilla 🥈🥈🥈 [beat by Penguin]
❌Defeated: Eastern lowland gorilla - Gorilla beringei graueri [beat by Lion]
❌Defeated: Dermophis donaldtrumpi Caecilian - Dermophis donaldtrumpi 🥈[beat by Brownthroated three-toed sloth]
❌Defeated: New World Screwworm - Cochliomyia hominivorax [beat by Hippopotamus]
❌Defeated: Brownthroated three-toed sloth - Bradypus variegatus 🥉 [beat by Western lowland gorilla]
❌Defeated: Chinese giant salamander - Andrias davidianus [beat by Saltwater Crocodile]
🚫Ineligible: [edited in bad faith]
❌Defeated: Australopithecus - Australopithecus afarensis [beat by Platypus]
Other
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OptionProbability
2h marathon has been officially broken by a human
Neuralink trials have happened with volunteer humans
New Pope after Francis
three or more events from the CoolFold 100 Challenge resolved
five or more events from the CoolFold 100 Challenge resolved
Bitcoin has reached $100K at some point
Taylor Swift has been married
Fortnite Crossover with the Simpsons
Gold has reached $2500/oz at some point
ETH Ethereum has reached $2800 USD (again)
S&box fully released (Facepunch's new garry's mod like game)
Coyote vs Acme releases or leaks
Ethereum ETH has reached $4000 again
USA's Supreme Court is still 9 justices (does not get expanded)
True Detective Season 5 released
xkcd is still producing new comics at least once a month
Elon is still at least a partial owner of Twitter
publicly available ChatGPT or similar LLM can solve sudokus reliably
Super Smash Bros Melee still a popular esport
Destiny is still regularly livestreaming
No humans on the moon since Apollo
Mr Beast has 500M or more subscribers on Youtube
Xi still leader of China
Kingdom Hearts 4 has released
Chat GPT 7 or higher available for public use
Slavoj Zizek still giving public talks
Putin still leader of Russia
Zuckerberg still CEO of facebook/meta
Hiroyuki Nishimura is still the owner of 4chan
Palworld is still able to be played through Steam
the game Rust is still receiving regular updates with new content (not just bug / small fixes)
@strutheo is still on Manifold, with the same username
a twitter account has reached 500M followers
Charles still King of UK
Team Fortress 2 is still receiving periodic blog posts / small updates
One Piece manga is still going (original series)
The tenth drop of the pitch drop experiment has fallen
Flo is still the progressive mascot (the actress still working )
At least one of the other prediction market websites has gone out of business
Winner of 2028 election is Democrat
George RR Martin has released the next GoT / ASOIAF book (The Winds of Winter)
Iceland, Norway, or Japan has banned whaling
Hytale has fully released to the public (not just a beta)
Nintendo still manufacturing Switch
Apex Legends is still receiving updates and servers are online
The Nintendo Switch successor console has sold at least 65 million units
Total mana bet on Manifold has peaked to 10B in one day at least once
Family Guy has ended
Avatar still has the record for highest worldwide movie gross on BoxOfficeMojo
the Rmax of the top non distributed supercomputer is at least 3000 PFlop/Sec (according to top500.org)
Jared Fogel OR Fetty Wap is out of prison
prong.studio still operational and selling products
Chameleon Twist 3 has released (or another sequel)
Kojima's Physint game has released
Bitcoin has reached $150K at least one time
Old School Runescape has released Sailing and at least 1 other new skill
Weak AGI achieved, as indicated by the YES resolution of the Metaculus market on the topic
there will be a USA federal holiday in August (confirmed happening in 2028 or next year in 2029)
Magic the Gathering card has sold for $1M or more (other than the One Ring!)
Petco will have filed for bankruptcy
Manifold MAU has spiked to 40k+ at least two separate weeks/occasions
Manifold has sold $40K or more mana in the last 30 days before market close
A second feature length South Park movie has released (like South Park: Bigger, Longer & Uncut)
at least one spider man movie releases each year
1200 or more official pokemon
Annoying Orange youtube channel is still uploading at least one video a month
Palestine / Israel will have come to an agreement on borders (post Oct 7)
Russia AND ROC are both forbidden from entering the Olympics still
Nintendo ends online play and other online services for Switch (as they did for WiiU and 3DS on April 8th 2024)
Rabbit is still selling R1 (or a sequel product) and it can be purchased by the average consumer
Amazon #1 book is by a politician or musician
The New England Patriots have either won a Super Bowl (2024-2027 seasons) or clinched the division (2028)
A North American team has won a Dota 2 International for the first time since 2015
jd vance has been president or wins the election to be one
Ukraine-Russia war still ongoing
X (Twitter) brand has changed again (either back to Twitter or something other than X)
Amazon #1 book is a self-help book
A new official weapon has been added to Team Fortress 2 since after 2017
I'll be dead.
Build a Bear will have filed for bankruptcy or been bought
NFL has an official expansion team in Europe somewhere
Manifold has collapsed / bankrupt at least once already
Star Citizen has fully released to the public (not just a beta)
China - Taiwan war / invasion begins
Dwarf Fortress ceases active development
doomsday clock is 100 seconds or more from midnight
All 9 current Supreme Court justices from today (Jan 2024) are still serving
There will be a breakthrough in nuclear weaponry
Taylor Swift has been divorced
a tenth country is confirmed to have nuclear weapons
Turkey has a higher GDP (PPP) than the United Kingdom
At least one of Paul Biya, Pope Francis, Ali Khamenei is still in power
China has landed a human on the moon
Mana can be donated to charity through Manifold at the same rate (1 cent = 1 mana)
Chat GPT 8.5 or higher released for public use
a paper for LK99 or another room temperature superconductor is peer reviewed and replicated
someone has reached 2900 FIDE chess rating
The record for youngest Best Actor Academy Award Broken (Adrien Brody, The Pianist, age 29)
Josh Shapiro is the President-elect of the United States
JB Pritzker is the President-elect of the United States
Trump has served at least 1 full day in jail/prison (not at home)
Gretchen Whitmer is the President-elect of the United States
Jared Polis is the President-elect of the United States
No humans exist
Manifold Love is still getting updates or community support/events
Jimmy Carter is still alive
100
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96
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OptionProbability
100th spacex launch of the year
Coyote vs Acme releases
Manifest 2026 happens
new apple iphone releases
Lego releases a record breaking set with the most pieces (bigger than Lego Art World Map)
taylor swift married
Earthquake magnitude 7.8 or higher somewhere in the world
SpaceX IPOs
2h0m0s marathon barrier officially broken
USA Government has a shutdown
A commercial airline hijacking
Imu face reveal in One Piece
Chat GPT 6 releases
Twitter/x releases a Peer to Peer payment system to free or premium users
Nioh 3 releases
trump removes a cabinet member
alan greenspan passes away
Grand Theft Auto 6 releases
Twitter gets a new CEO
twitter x mail releases
Google, Anthropic, OpenAI, Nvidia, Microsoft or Amazon announces a new CEO
noam chomsky passes away
Google, Anthropic, OpenAI, Nvidia, Microsoft or Amazon announces a new CEO
grok 5 releases
ukraine and russia announce a ceasefire
New record breaking price for a Magic the Gathering card ($3M)
israel opens an embassy in syria, OR announces it will
GenoSamuel releases Chris Chan History #86
windows 12 announcement is made
Next Game of Thrones novel release date announced (Winds of Winter)
Any nuclear explosion happens (test, bomb, etc)
trump is impeached by either house OR senate
stripe ipo happens
Tom Scott's 'this video hax X views' video reaches 80M views
Legally Blonde 3 release date announced
English Wikipedia reaches 70M PAGES or more
discord IPOs
Bitcoin BTC reaches $150K USD or more
Saw XI Releases in USA
Ark Survival Evolved 2 releases
Haunted Chocolatier releases
grok 6 releases
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97
56
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34
31
24
17
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10
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OptionVotes
YES
NO
146
30