OptionProbability
Elephant - Loxodonta africana 🥈🥈
Yellow-Lipped Sea Krait - Laticauda colubrina
Red Fox - Vulpes vulpes 🥉
Platypus - Ornithorhynchus anatinus 🥉
Prehistoric Elephant - Palaeoloxodon namadicus 🥉🥉🥈
Sonoran Desert Sidewinder - Crotalus cerastes cercobombus
Ice Worm - mesenchytraeus solifugus
Dog - Canis familiaris
Cat - Felis catus
Tiger - Panthera tigris
Dolphin - Tursiops truncatus
Penguin - Aptenodytes forsteri
Lion - Panthera leo 🥈
Axolotl - Ambystoma mexicanum
Sea Otter - Enhydra lutris
Honey Badger - Mellivora capensis 🥈
Polar Bear - Ursus maritimus 🥈
Wolverine - Gulo gulo
Cape Buffalo - Syncerus caffer caffer
Great White Shark - Carcharodon carcharias
Blue Whale - Balaenoptera musculus
Common Bed Bug - Cimex lectularius
Giant Nematode - Placentonema gigantissima
Pompeii Worm - Alvinella pompejana
Sperm Whale - Physeter macrocephalus
Penis snake - Atretochoana eiselti
Giant Dragonfly - Meganeuropsis permiana
Giant Pacific Octopus - Enteroctopus dofleini
Triceratops - Triceratops horridus
Kiwi - Apteryx australis
Brown Rat - Rattus norvegicus 🥉
House Mouse - Mus musculus domesticus
Red Volcano Sponge - Acarnus Erithacus
Sulfur Cave Molly - Poecilia sulphuraria
Meerkat - Suricata suricatta 🥉
Housefly - Musca domestica 🥉
Feral pigeon - Columba livia urbana
Coyote - Canis latrans
Great black-backed gull - Larus marinus
Leopard seal - Hydrurga leptonyx
Western lowland gorilla - Gorilla gorilla gorilla
Eastern lowland gorilla - Gorilla beringei graueri
Brownthroated three-toed sloth - Bradypus variegatus 🥉
Bornean orangutan - Pongo pygmaeus
❌Defeated: Hippopotamus - Hippopotamus amphibius 🥈🥈🥈 [beat by Brown Rat]
❌Defeated: Giant Panda - Ailuropoda melanoleuca [beat by Polar Bear]
❌Defeated: Orca - Orcinus orca [beat by Housefly]
❌Defeated: Hotwheels sisyphus spider - Hotwheels sisyphus [beat by Saltwater Crocodile]
❌Defeated: Saltwater Crocodile - Crocodylus porosus 🥈🥈🥈🥈 [beat by Red Fox]
🚫Ineligible: Water bear - Milnesium tardigradum
❌Defeated: Ping-Pong Tree Sponge - Chondrocladia concrescens 🥉 [beat by Prehistoric Elephant]
🚫Ineligible: human [I'm shortening this]
🚫Ineligible: Tardigrade (LFG)
🚫Ineligible: [This animal was edited in bad faith]
❌Defeated: Wolf - Canis lupus [beat by Prehistoric Elephant]
❌Defeated: Cliff Swallow - Petrochelidon pyrrhonota [beat by Elephant]
❌Defeated: Haast's Eagle - Hieraaetus moorei [beat by Prehistoric Elephant]
❌Defeated: Flightless Elephant Bird - Aepyornis maximus [beat by Saltwater Crocodile]
❌Defeated: Great evening bat - Ia io [beat by Lion]
❌Defeated: Funny valentine spider - Funny valentine [beat by Dermophis donaldtrumpi Caecilian]
❌Defeated: Yi qi dinosaur - Yi qi [beat by Elephant]
❌Defeated: Aha ha wasp - Aha ha [beat by Hippopotamus]
❌Defeated: Colossal Whale - Perucetus colossus [beat by Meerkat]
❌Defeated: Cuban Cockroach - Panchlora nivea [beat by Hippopotamus]
❌Defeated: Panther Chameleon - Furcifer pardalis [beat by Saltwater Crocodile]
❌Defeated: Giant Pterosaur - Quetzalcoatlus northropi [beat by Ping-Pong Tree Sponge]
❌Defeated: Lesser Flamingo - Phoeniconaias minor [beat by Honey Badger]
❌Defeated: Dermophis donaldtrumpi Caecilian - Dermophis donaldtrumpi 🥈[beat by Brownthroated three-toed sloth]
❌Defeated: New World Screwworm - Cochliomyia hominivorax [beat by Hippopotamus]
❌Defeated: Chinese giant salamander - Andrias davidianus [beat by Saltwater Crocodile]
🚫Ineligible: [edited in bad faith]
❌Defeated: Australopithecus - Australopithecus afarensis [beat by Platypus]
Other
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
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2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Neuralink trials have happened with volunteer humans
New Pope after Francis
three or more events from the CoolFold 100 Challenge resolved
five or more events from the CoolFold 100 Challenge resolved
Bitcoin has reached $100K at some point
Gold has reached $2500/oz at some point
ETH Ethereum has reached $2800 USD (again)
Ethereum ETH has reached $4000 again
xkcd is still producing new comics at least once a month
USA's Supreme Court is still 9 justices (does not get expanded)
Taylor Swift has been married
publicly available ChatGPT or similar LLM can solve sudokus reliably
Mr Beast has 500M or more subscribers on Youtube
True Detective Season 5 released
Elon is still at least a partial owner of Twitter
Super Smash Bros Melee still a popular esport
No humans on the moon since Apollo
S&box fully released (Facepunch's new garry's mod like game)
Putin still leader of Russia
Fortnite Crossover with the Simpsons
Xi still leader of China
Zuckerberg still CEO of facebook/meta
Destiny is still regularly livestreaming
Palworld is still able to be played through Steam
George RR Martin has released the next GoT / ASOIAF book (The Winds of Winter)
Slavoj Zizek still giving public talks
a twitter account has reached 500M followers
Charles still King of UK
Hiroyuki Nishimura is still the owner of 4chan
One Piece manga is still going (original series)
The tenth drop of the pitch drop experiment has fallen
Team Fortress 2 is still receiving periodic blog posts / small updates
Flo is still the progressive mascot (the actress still working )
At least one of the other prediction market websites has gone out of business
Iceland, Norway, or Japan has banned whaling
2h marathon has been officially broken by a human
@strutheo is still on Manifold, with the same username
the game Rust is still receiving regular updates with new content (not just bug / small fixes)
Avatar still has the record for highest worldwide movie gross on BoxOfficeMojo
Hytale has fully released to the public (not just a beta)
Winner of 2028 election is Democrat
Nintendo still manufacturing Switch
Apex Legends is still receiving updates and servers are online
The Nintendo Switch successor console has sold at least 65 million units
Total mana bet on Manifold has peaked to 10B in one day at least once
Family Guy has ended
the Rmax of the top non distributed supercomputer is at least 3000 PFlop/Sec (according to top500.org)
Kingdom Hearts 4 has released
Jared Fogel OR Fetty Wap is out of prison
prong.studio still operational and selling products
Chameleon Twist 3 has released (or another sequel)
Kojima's Physint game has released
Bitcoin has reached $150K at least one time
Old School Runescape has released Sailing and at least 1 other new skill
Coyote vs Acme releases or leaks
Weak AGI achieved, as indicated by the YES resolution of the Metaculus market on the topic
Magic the Gathering card has sold for $1M or more (other than the One Ring!)
Petco will have filed for bankruptcy
Manifold MAU has spiked to 40k+ at least two separate weeks/occasions
A North American team has won a Dota 2 International for the first time since 2015
Manifold has sold $40K or more mana in the last 30 days before market close
A second feature length South Park movie has released (like South Park: Bigger, Longer & Uncut)
at least one spider man movie releases each year
Star Citizen has fully released to the public (not just a beta)
Chat GPT 7 or higher available for public use
At least one of Paul Biya, Pope Francis, Ali Khamenei is still in power
Annoying Orange youtube channel is still uploading at least one video a month
jd vance has been president or wins the election to be one
Palestine / Israel will have come to an agreement on borders (post Oct 7)
Russia AND ROC are both forbidden from entering the Olympics still
Nintendo ends online play and other online services for Switch (as they did for WiiU and 3DS on April 8th 2024)
there will be a USA federal holiday in August (confirmed happening in 2028 or next year in 2029)
Rabbit is still selling R1 (or a sequel product) and it can be purchased by the average consumer
Manifold has collapsed / bankrupt at least once already
The New England Patriots have either won a Super Bowl (2024-2027 seasons) or clinched the division (2028)
The record for youngest Best Actor Academy Award Broken (Adrien Brody, The Pianist, age 29)
Build a Bear will have filed for bankruptcy or been bought
Ukraine-Russia war still ongoing
X (Twitter) brand has changed again (either back to Twitter or something other than X)
Amazon #1 book is a self-help book
A new official weapon has been added to Team Fortress 2 since after 2017
1200 or more official pokemon
NFL has an official expansion team in Europe somewhere
I'll be dead.
Amazon #1 book is by a politician or musician
China - Taiwan war / invasion begins
There will be a breakthrough in nuclear weaponry
Dwarf Fortress ceases active development
China has landed a human on the moon
doomsday clock is 100 seconds or more from midnight
Taylor Swift has been divorced
All 9 current Supreme Court justices from today (Jan 2024) are still serving
Turkey has a higher GDP (PPP) than the United Kingdom
a tenth country is confirmed to have nuclear weapons
Josh Shapiro is the President-elect of the United States
Mana can be donated to charity through Manifold at the same rate (1 cent = 1 mana)
Chat GPT 8.5 or higher released for public use
someone has reached 2900 FIDE chess rating
a paper for LK99 or another room temperature superconductor is peer reviewed and replicated
Trump has served at least 1 full day in jail/prison (not at home)
JB Pritzker is the President-elect of the United States
Gretchen Whitmer is the President-elect of the United States
Jared Polis is the President-elect of the United States
No humans exist
Manifold Love is still getting updates or community support/events
Jimmy Carter is still alive
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
92
91
90
86
85
84
83
82
79
79
77
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62
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20
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19
19
18
15
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13
11
10
7
5
3
3
1
0
0
OptionVotes
NO
YES
2961
390
OptionProbability
new apple iphone releases
USA Government has a shutdown
Nioh 3 releases
trump removes a cabinet member
grok 5 releases
100th spacex launch of the year
Manifest 2026 happens
Grand Theft Auto 6 releases
taylor swift married
SpaceX IPOs
twitter x mail releases
Coyote vs Acme releases
Earthquake magnitude 7.8 or higher somewhere in the world
Imu face reveal in One Piece
Twitter/x releases a Peer to Peer payment system to free or premium users
alan greenspan passes away
stripe ipo happens
New record breaking price for a Magic the Gathering card ($3M)
GenoSamuel releases Chris Chan History #86
discord IPOs
2h0m0s marathon barrier officially broken
Legally Blonde 3 release date announced
israel opens an embassy in syria, OR announces it will
windows 12 announcement is made
Any nuclear explosion happens (test, bomb, etc)
Lego releases a record breaking set with the most pieces (bigger than Lego Art World Map)
Chat GPT 6 releases
Next Game of Thrones novel release date announced (Winds of Winter)
ukraine and russia announce a ceasefire
noam chomsky passes away
Twitter gets a new CEO
grok 6 releases
Saw XI Releases in USA
Tom Scott's 'this video hax X views' video reaches 80M views
trump is impeached by either house OR senate
Bitcoin BTC reaches $150K USD or more
A commercial airline hijacking
Ark Survival Evolved 2 releases
Haunted Chocolatier releases
English Wikipedia reaches 70M PAGES or more
100
100
100
100
76
76
76
74
73
66
66
59
52
50
50
50
50
49
40
34
34
34
34
34
31
30
30
28
28
28
24
17
15
14
13
10
10
9
5
5
OptionVotes
YES
NO
182
23
OptionVotes
YES
NO
162
62
