CRA News

Will something CRAZY happen? [Monthly Market]

Jan 2, 6:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

151101853

OptionProbability

January

February

November

September

December

August

October

July

June

March

April

May

100

What will be the official cause(s) of the Air India Flight 171 crash?

Jun 13, 6:55 AMJun 30, 6:43 AM

17280548

OptionProbability

Pilot Action: Pilot action was a primary cause of the crash.

Design/Manufacturing Defect: A Boeing design or manufacturing defect was a primary cause of the crash.

Maintenance/Fueling Lapse: An Air India maintenance or fueling lapse was a primary cause of the crash.

Will Trump deploy federal law enforcement to crack down on protests by "radical left lunatics" by X date?

Nov 7, 7:29 PMJan 21, 2:59 AM

5174334

OptionProbability

January 20, 2029 (Whole term)

January 20, 2026 (First year)

January 20, 2025 (Inauguration Day)

February 20, 2025 (First month)

April 29, 2025 (First 100 days)

Will there be a fraud/criminal scandal that harms EA reputation as much as the FTX crash harmed EA reputation, before 2030?

Dec 13, 12:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.47%chance

4361271

OptionVotes

YES

11722

4317

Will AI cause a financial crash within a decade? (By Oct 2032)

Oct 18, 4:53 PMOct 20, 3:59 AM

56%chance

625724

OptionVotes

YES

1185

755

Will I still think ergocidity economics is crankery at the end of March 2027?

Mar 17, 6:52 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM

97%chance

21844

OptionVotes

YES

9256

7401

Will SpaceX stock crash and close below $100 this year?

Jun 13, 9:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38%chance

181726

OptionVotes

YES

1277

783

Will more people die in (major) plane crashes than (major) train crashes in 2026?

Feb 17, 6:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.11%chance

131565

OptionVotes

YES

1359

736

Someone Crashes A Car Wearing Apple Vision Pro

Feb 5, 10:11 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

29.35%chance

241486

OptionVotes

YES

1648

269

Will quantum computers, or any other type of computer, be able to crack bitcoin's ECDSA signatures before 2050?

Apr 21, 11:49 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

28.33%chance

14777

OptionVotes

YES

1068

760

Name something AI has gotten crazy good at in the last year. (Bilt Rent Free Jul 1, 2026)

Jun 25, 5:49 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

9699

OptionProbability

Coding

Video/image gen

Reasoning

Research

Therapy

Lying

Nothing

Music gen

Taking jobs

Recipes

Travel planning

Automation

Will humanity start building a Lunar Crater Radio Telescope before 2040?

Sep 3, 11:27 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

33.22%chance

17626

OptionVotes

YES

1009

962

CRA News

Prediction markets for CRA

Prediction markets for CRA

Prediction markets for CRA

Will something CRAZY happen? [Monthly Market]

What will be the official cause(s) of the Air India Flight 171 crash?

Will Trump deploy federal law enforcement to crack down on protests by "radical left lunatics" by X date?

Will there be a fraud/criminal scandal that harms EA reputation as much as the FTX crash harmed EA reputation, before 2030?

Will AI cause a financial crash within a decade? (By Oct 2032)

Will I still think ergocidity economics is crankery at the end of March 2027?

Will SpaceX stock crash and close below $100 this year?

Will more people die in (major) plane crashes than (major) train crashes in 2026?

Someone Crashes A Car Wearing Apple Vision Pro

Will quantum computers, or any other type of computer, be able to crack bitcoin's ECDSA signatures before 2050?

Name something AI has gotten crazy good at in the last year. (Bilt Rent Free Jul 1, 2026)

Will humanity start building a Lunar Crater Radio Telescope before 2040?

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