CRA News

Will Trump deploy federal law enforcement to crack down on protests by "radical left lunatics" by X date?

Nov 7, 7:29 PMJan 21, 2:59 AM

4973582

OptionProbability

January 20, 2029 (Whole term)

January 20, 2026 (First year)

January 20, 2025 (Inauguration Day)

February 20, 2025 (First month)

April 29, 2025 (First 100 days)

What will be the official cause(s) of the Air India Flight 171 crash?

Jun 13, 6:55 AMJun 30, 6:43 AM

16965924

OptionProbability

Pilot Action: Pilot action was a primary cause of the crash.

Design/Manufacturing Defect: A Boeing design or manufacturing defect was a primary cause of the crash.

Maintenance/Fueling Lapse: An Air India maintenance or fueling lapse was a primary cause of the crash.

Will there be a fraud/criminal scandal that harms EA reputation as much as the FTX crash harmed EA reputation, before 2030?

Dec 13, 12:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.47%chance

4361271

OptionVotes

YES

11722

4317

By EOY 2025, will the model with the lowest perplexity on Common Crawl will not be based on transformers?

Jan 5, 4:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.88%chance

3312803

OptionVotes

YES

4441

478

A plane carrying NVIDIA AI chips for delivery is shot down or crashes under suspicious circumstances by mid 2027

Apr 6, 12:42 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

8%chance

295455

OptionVotes

YES

3391

295

Will something CRAZY happen in December?

Nov 29, 12:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.67%chance

614978

OptionVotes

YES

1901

526

Someone Crashes A Car Wearing Apple Vision Pro

Feb 5, 10:11 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31.66%chance

231436

OptionVotes

YES

1598

291

Will Grindr crash near Anaheim CA when the "Maga Invasion" and "Mini Gay Days" happen at Disneyland, February 28, 2026?

Dec 1, 1:38 AMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

29.28%chance

11927

OptionVotes

YES

1554

643

Will quantum computers, or any other type of computer, be able to crack bitcoin's ECDSA signatures before 2050?

Apr 21, 11:49 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

28.33%chance

14777

OptionVotes

YES

1068

760

Will Generative AI trained on crawled art be illegal in 2027 because of copyright?

Aug 4, 8:25 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

18.47%chance

14650

OptionVotes

YES

1303

909

Will humanity start building a Lunar Crater Radio Telescope before 2040?

Sep 3, 11:27 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

33.22%chance

17626

OptionVotes

YES

1009

962

Will TWA 800 crash lawsuit Krick v. Raytheon (Case 1:22-cv-11032-AK) be ruled in favor of the plaintiffs?

Jun 1, 8:09 PMJun 2, 5:59 AM

47.04%chance

4170

OptionVotes

YES

1061

942

CRA News

Prediction markets for CRA

Prediction markets for CRA

Prediction markets for CRA

Will Trump deploy federal law enforcement to crack down on protests by "radical left lunatics" by X date?

What will be the official cause(s) of the Air India Flight 171 crash?

Will there be a fraud/criminal scandal that harms EA reputation as much as the FTX crash harmed EA reputation, before 2030?

By EOY 2025, will the model with the lowest perplexity on Common Crawl will not be based on transformers?

A plane carrying NVIDIA AI chips for delivery is shot down or crashes under suspicious circumstances by mid 2027

Will something CRAZY happen in December?

Someone Crashes A Car Wearing Apple Vision Pro

Will Grindr crash near Anaheim CA when the "Maga Invasion" and "Mini Gay Days" happen at Disneyland, February 28, 2026?

Will quantum computers, or any other type of computer, be able to crack bitcoin's ECDSA signatures before 2050?

Will Generative AI trained on crawled art be illegal in 2027 because of copyright?

Will humanity start building a Lunar Crater Radio Telescope before 2040?

Will TWA 800 crash lawsuit Krick v. Raytheon (Case 1:22-cv-11032-AK) be ruled in favor of the plaintiffs?

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