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Prediction markets for Cracked

Will Trump deploy federal law enforcement to crack down on protests by "radical left lunatics" by X date?

Nov 7, 7:29 PMJan 21, 2:59 AM

5380630

OptionProbability

January 20, 2029 (Whole term)

January 20, 2026 (First year)

January 20, 2025 (Inauguration Day)

February 20, 2025 (First month)

April 29, 2025 (First 100 days)

34

6

0

0

0

Will Magnus Carlsen crack 2900?

Jan 25, 4:09 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.24%chance

333517

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1209

935

Will crack be legal by 2030?

Jan 10, 2:51 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

6.87%chance

141307

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2247

833

will i crack before the year of 2026 ends

Nov 4, 4:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.73%chance

6941

OptionVotes

YES

NO

345

29

Will significant strides be made in cracking dolphin language by 2026?

Mar 26, 12:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11%chance

17814

OptionVotes

YES

NO

536

60

Will quantum computers, or any other type of computer, be able to crack bitcoin's ECDSA signatures before 2050?

Apr 21, 11:49 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

28.33%chance

14777

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1068

760

What will be involved in cracking the RSA-2048 challenge number?

Mar 14, 7:28 AMJan 1, 8:59 PM

10545

OptionProbability

Quantum computing

New mathematics**

Artificial intelligence*

61

48

25

Will bitcoin lose >90% of its value due to quantum computers cracking sha256 before 2053?

Apr 11, 8:57 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.56%chance

7359

OptionVotes

YES

NO

376

108

Will crack be legal by 2040?

Jan 10, 2:51 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

21.88%chance

9105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

263

156

Chess endgame tablebase of 8 pieces cracked before 1/1/2028

Oct 11, 4:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.34%chance

690

OptionVotes

YES

NO

167

60

Will crack be legal by 2050?

Jan 10, 2:51 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

23.45%chance

883

OptionVotes

YES

NO

196

97

In Esurient, will Lyvina at some point crack open the world?

Feb 22, 2:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.13%chance

431

OptionVotes

YES

NO

141

89

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