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Prediction markets for CRE

Will Elon Musk create a political party in 2025?

Jun 5, 6:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.52%chance

1000672953

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13568

7861

Will there be a song created by an AI system in the year-end top 100 Billboards chart by 2026?

Feb 3, 2:59 PMDec 31, 10:00 AM

33.38%chance

26143162

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6999

1910

Will the proposed 5,000$ per child tax credit be signed into law before November 7 2028?

Aug 18, 2:06 PMDec 2, 6:59 AM

30.29%chance

75041

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12910

8301

Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2035?

Dec 25, 1:02 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

33%chance

354694

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

933

Will the first crewed Starship to Mars launch within 4 years as Elon Musk says?

Sep 8, 6:55 PMMar 1, 4:59 AM

7%chance

314343

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3127

650

Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2040?

Dec 23, 2:36 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

58.32%chance

293845

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1268

741

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Nov 11, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.67%chance

171570

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6171

4649

Will it be possible to create a human embryo through an API by 2050?

Jun 14, 1:40 AMDec 1, 5:59 AM

35.35%chance

7876

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10313

9761

Will I be impressed by someone using RL through self-play to improve model creativity or aesthetics in 2025?

Jan 27, 12:36 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45.5%chance

6731

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10255

9775

Will Human Genetic Engineering in China create a "Hunan Being" before 2034?

Nov 12, 5:14 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30.12%chance

6526

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3023

2156

What will happen with Cursed Crew's development?

Jun 25, 4:29 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

Curse update released in 2025

Game is cancelled 😢

Game leaves early access in 2025

Game leaves early access in 2026

Game gets 1,000 Steam reviews before 2027

50

50

50

50

50

By when will Cursor agent be able to create "Cursor rules" according to the official docs?

Mar 24, 9:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

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