OptionVotes
YES
NO
3694
271
1461
938
OptionProbability
500M - 999.9M
100M - 499.9M
0 - 99.9M
1B - 4.99B
5B - 10B
Above 10B
38
27
17
6
Apr '28: Bipedal robots meaningfully assist human tradespeople in their work
Dec '28: AI systems able to autonomously design their successors (RSI)
Nov '26: AI good enough at biology to both advance science and potentially proliferate bioweapon risks
Nov '27: Autonomous companies exist and generate $10m+ revenues
Apr '27: A team of humans collaborating with AI will make a Nobel-winning discovery
55
47
46
45
Before December 25, 2033
Before December 25, 2032
Before December 25, 2031
Before December 25, 2030
Before December 25, 2029
Before December 25, 2028
Before December 25, 2027
Before December 25, 2026
78
68
59
52
50
48
