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Prediction markets for Creator AI

Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2030?

Oct 1, 3:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

97%chance

377226100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5064

2

Will gay marriage be illegal in the United States during Trump's presidency.

Dec 5, 4:35 PMJan 23, 4:59 AM

3.21%chance

6784562

OptionVotes

YES

NO

59041

3675

Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2035?

Oct 11, 5:58 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

96.98%chance

13061823

OptionVotes

NO

YES

19704

1249

New York Times vs. OpenAI: Will the NYT win the Copyright Lawsuit on any count?

Dec 28, 1:38 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41239768

OptionProbability

The case will settle out of court

The New York Times will win the lawsuit

OpenAI will win the lawsuit

Other

37

27

19

17

Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2028?

Apr 1, 2:29 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

94.01%chance

10837247

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4760

290

Will AGI arrive before Frozen 3?

Apr 25, 5:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.01%chance

216599

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5609

1010

What will be the first metal Trump officially requests for Project Vault?

May 21, 6:20 PMDec 31, 6:37 PM

94872

OptionProbability

Gallium

Neodymium

Germanium

Antimony

Dysprosium

Terbium

Yttrium

Tantalum

Rhenium

Indium

Tellurium

Samarium

Silver

13

13

12

9

8

7

7

5

5

5

5

5

4

Will the creators of "South Park" both be killed by AI before "South Park" is officially cancelled?

Mar 24, 9:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.52%chance

132287

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2226

883

Will Euclid space telescope lower my credence in the standard model of cosmology?

Jul 23, 4:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.74%chance

321956

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6059

5939

Does AI help drug discovery?

Oct 14, 1:50 AMJan 2, 2:47 AM

77.52%chance

61565

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4063

2475

Which of 1password or Bitwarden will have user secrets exposed in a security breach first?

Feb 29, 1:37 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

321030

OptionProbability

1password

Bitwarden

57

43

Would you like if Manifold AI will not only be able to summarize a creator’s comments, but actually resolve the outcome

Dec 3, 8:33 AM

400

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