Creator AI News

What were the motives of the UnitedHealthcare CEO assassin?

Dec 4, 6:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

665463837

OptionProbability

A set of radical beliefs that do not fit on a strict left/right paradigm

An attempt to terrorize people into bringing down the system of private insurance in the United States

Wrongful delay or deny insurance claims

An attempt to change the incentive structure present at the CEO level of UHC and similar companies

Chronic Back Pain

Mental illness

Radical Leftism

Fame

Assassin suffered a personal tragedy at the hands of UnitedHealthcare

Business

Targeted hit/contract killing

Manipulation of the share price of UnitedHealth Inc for profit.

Genetic predisposition (Italian)

Zizian Murder Cult member

brainwashed right wing anti-vax lunatic

Personal conflict with CEO

Random act of violence

Will gay marriage be illegal in the United States during Trump's presidency.

Dec 5, 4:35 PMJan 23, 4:59 AM

3.12%chance

6580709

OptionVotes

YES

60159

3638

New York Times vs. OpenAI: Will the NYT win the Copyright Lawsuit on any count?

Dec 28, 1:38 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41139585

OptionProbability

The case will settle out of court

The New York Times will win the lawsuit

OpenAI will win the lawsuit

Other

Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2028?

Apr 1, 2:29 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

81.03%chance

9525701

OptionVotes

YES

2522

563

What organization will be the first to create AGI?

Sep 5, 2:45 AMSep 12, 4:59 AM

21822758

OptionProbability

DeepMind

OpenAI

Other

Anthropic

Elon's X.AI company

The US Government (DARPA or Similar Org)

The Chinese Communist Party

DeepSeek

A single individual not listed here

Google Brain

IBM

Microsoft

Will an AI make a new breakthrough on the hardest math problems, as defined by Epoch AI, by the end of 2027?

Jan 27, 10:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

4510826

OptionVotes

YES

1000

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Mar 3, 4:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

655171

OptionProbability

Deepmind/Google/Alphabet

OpenAI/Microsoft

Anthropic

xAI or another Elon Musk-led AI initiative

Another specific company (not one of the above or a subsidiary)

A government or coalition of governments

Meta (Facebook) AI Research

A university/academic institute/independent researcher/non-profit organization or a combination of these

Will AGI arrive before Frozen 3?

Apr 25, 5:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.9%chance

194054

OptionVotes

YES

4453

1165

Will the creators of "South Park" both be killed by AI before "South Park" is officially cancelled?

Mar 24, 9:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.3%chance

132181

OptionVotes

YES

2332

878

Which of 1password or Bitwarden will have user secrets exposed in a security breach first?

Feb 29, 1:37 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32930

OptionProbability

1password

Bitwarden

Interaction Company of California (creator of Poke AI assistant) acquired before 2028?

Sep 21, 10:47 PMJan 1, 12:24 PM

54.75%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

110

Would you like if Manifold AI will not only be able to summarize a creator’s comments, but actually resolve the outcome

Dec 3, 8:33 AM

390

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What were the motives of the UnitedHealthcare CEO assassin?

Will gay marriage be illegal in the United States during Trump's presidency.

New York Times vs. OpenAI: Will the NYT win the Copyright Lawsuit on any count?

Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2028?

What organization will be the first to create AGI?

Will an AI make a new breakthrough on the hardest math problems, as defined by Epoch AI, by the end of 2027?

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Will AGI arrive before Frozen 3?

Will the creators of "South Park" both be killed by AI before "South Park" is officially cancelled?

Which of 1password or Bitwarden will have user secrets exposed in a security breach first?

Interaction Company of California (creator of Poke AI assistant) acquired before 2028?

Would you like if Manifold AI will not only be able to summarize a creator’s comments, but actually resolve the outcome

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