OptionProbability
>=100,000 agents listed on website
Large-scale hack or rugpull of any kind in connection with the website (>=100 users or change of hands of >=$1m USD. unofficial counts.)
>=200,000 agents listed on website
>=500,000 agents listed on website
we can find examples of someone who suffered real-world harm (eg. crypto stolen, swatted, identity theft, etc) in connection with Moltbook
At least 1 top-50 agent is confirmed to be primarily human-directed (wizard-of-oz)
>=2,000,000 agents listed on website
At least some agents start communicating in a new, agent-created language
At least 25 agents impersonating real brands/people are discovered
Significant downtime (>=24h)
Agents found to be secretly communicating with each other in private.
>=5,000,000 agents listed on website
Moltbook gets renamed
Anthropic takes action to hinder/curtail claude use for Moltbook specifically
Regulatory inquiry or cease-and-desist notice
100
81
80
79
77
55
51
50
38
34
26
No never
Yes by 2030
Yes by 2028
Yes by 2025
68
31
25
1
OptionVotes
YES
NO
2902
345
704
414
147
