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Top stories

Google’s ‘Nano Banana’ AI Model Launches as Higgsfield Offers Year-Long Free Use

Google’s ‘Nano Banana’ AI Model Launches as Higgsfield Offers Year-Long Free Use

Authors

26

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Creator

Will Allan Lichtman (creator of the 13 Keys) correctly predict the 2028 election?

Oct 14, 12:17 AMDec 1, 7:59 AM

67.06%chance

177310

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1427

701

🐲 Will I Slay all 20 Top Creators by the end of 2026?

Nov 2, 1:50 PMJan 1, 1:00 AM

2.11%chance

135907

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6803

147

Will the creator of any cryptocurrency be imprisoned for creating it before 2033?

Dec 11, 2:41 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

5.49%chance

213037

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2050

707

Will the creators of "South Park" both be killed by AI before "South Park" is officially cancelled?

Mar 24, 9:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.52%chance

132287

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2226

883

Will Alexandra Elbakyan (creator of Sci-Hub) ever receive a Nobel Prize?

Dec 11, 12:41 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

8.49%chance

271141

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1107

965

Will I be on the "Top traders" leaderboard before the "Top creators" one?

Mar 3, 5:23 PMDec 8, 9:35 PM

25.25%chance

15869

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1107

931

Will Eugen Rochko (creator of Mastodon) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Dec 21, 12:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.71%chance

10419

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1191

957

Will Manifold market creators go on strike at any point before 2028?

May 12, 9:43 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

17.23%chance

19411

OptionVotes

NO

YES

127

101

Manifold Creators Stonks

Mar 27, 8:58 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4241

OptionProbability

Other

@strutheo

@AmmonLam

@IsaacKing

@SirCryptomind

@itsTomekK

@Gigacasting

@BTE

@memestiny

@jack

@firstuserhere

@johnleoks

27

12

10

8

8

6

6

4

4

4

4

4

If a market creator who is well-known in the real world resolves a market in a way that they believe to be correct, but Manifold admins believe to be incorrect, will they treat that market differently from the markets of non-famous users?

Dec 15, 1:31 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

31.49%chance

12146

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1054

966

Will Aella (the original creator) have a baby by the end of 2027?

Aug 1, 4:22 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

28.21%chance

5127

OptionVotes

YES

NO

126

88

Will the creators of Emesis Blue release their second TF2 film 'Murder Inc' by the end of 2026?

Feb 19, 6:45 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

35.67%chance

467

OptionVotes

YES

NO

134

74

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