Credits News

Will the proposed 5,000$ per child tax credit be signed into law before November 7 2028?

Aug 18, 2:06 PMDec 2, 6:59 AM

19.06%chance

1211095

OptionVotes

YES

18607

6485

An LLM or AI will be credited as coauthor on a paper in Nature or Science by mid 2026

Feb 19, 9:04 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

11.92%chance

284965

OptionVotes

YES

2723

368

Will Trump preserve Biden’s clean energy tax credits?

Mar 17, 4:27 PMJan 20, 7:59 AM

17.01%chance

81087

OptionVotes

YES

2033

614

Will Chinese social credit system be thought to be based on AI with own goals by end of 2035?

May 21, 2:42 PMDec 31, 6:59 PM

23.06%chance

91022

OptionVotes

YES

1846

568

What will be my risk.markets credit score by January 1 ,2027?

Mar 27, 8:40 PMMar 27, 8:59 PM

2667

OptionProbability

Above 0

Above 250

Above 500

Above 750

Above 1000

Above 1250

Above 1500

Above 1750

Will Trump take credit for reversing TikTok ban?

Dec 6, 6:27 PMJul 1, 4:59 AM

95.1%chance

20583

OptionVotes

YES

440

ManiFed Credit Rating stock (MFCRS)

Dec 2, 8:57 PM

2372

OptionProbability

YES

1150

870

Will Buggy be credited with finding the One Piece?

Feb 16, 2:16 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

37.36%chance

6336

OptionVotes

YES

1295

772

🛃Tax Committee: Which taxes & credits within Manifold will Manifold approve of? [ADD RESPONSES]

Apr 18, 12:04 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8205

OptionProbability

giving creators half of transaction fee

A tax on attention - markets that are more visible throughout Manifold's interface would have a higher portion of the participation fee burned

fees on realized profit

wealth tax

unique trader bonus

fees on each transaction

Will the World Bank lose it's AAA credit rating (2030)

Apr 4, 12:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.34%chance

565

OptionVotes

YES

127

Will Jose Luis Ricon be credited with a kill assist by 2050

May 27, 10:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.39%chance

355

OptionVotes

YES

155

Will "Don't let people buy credit with borrowed funds" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 18, 7:39 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

1000

Credits News

Prediction markets for Credits

Prediction markets for Credits

Prediction markets for Credits

Will the proposed 5,000$ per child tax credit be signed into law before November 7 2028?

An LLM or AI will be credited as coauthor on a paper in Nature or Science by mid 2026

Will Trump preserve Biden’s clean energy tax credits?

Will Chinese social credit system be thought to be based on AI with own goals by end of 2035?

What will be my risk.markets credit score by January 1 ,2027?

Will Trump take credit for reversing TikTok ban?

ManiFed Credit Rating stock (MFCRS)

Will Buggy be credited with finding the One Piece?

🛃Tax Committee: Which taxes & credits within Manifold will Manifold approve of? [ADD RESPONSES]

Will the World Bank lose it's AAA credit rating (2030)

Will Jose Luis Ricon be credited with a kill assist by 2050

Will "Don't let people buy credit with borrowed funds" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

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