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Prediction markets for Credits

Will the proposed 5,000$ per child tax credit be signed into law before November 7 2028?

Aug 18, 2:06 PMDec 2, 6:59 AM

19.06%chance

1211095

OptionVotes

YES

NO

18607

6485

An LLM or AI will be credited as coauthor on a paper in Nature or Science by mid 2026

Feb 19, 9:04 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

14%chance

244724

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2482

404

Will Trump preserve Biden’s clean energy tax credits?

Mar 17, 4:27 PMJan 20, 7:59 AM

17.01%chance

81087

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2033

614

Will Chinese social credit system be thought to be based on AI with own goals by end of 2035?

May 21, 2:42 PMDec 31, 6:59 PM

23.06%chance

91022

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1846

568

ManiFed Credit Rating stock (MFCRS)

Dec 2, 8:57 PM

2372

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1150

870

Will Buggy be credited with finding the One Piece?

Feb 16, 2:16 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

37.3%chance

5335

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1297

771

Will at least one US private credit fund with >$1 billion in AUM announce it is closing to new investors by Jun 15, 2026

Mar 16, 10:48 AMApr 30, 10:48 AM

71.87%chance

270

OptionVotes

NO

YES

150

72

Will Chicago's credit rating be downgraded again by EOY 2028?

Mar 19, 11:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51%chance

256

OptionVotes

NO

YES

120

77

Will Jose Luis Ricon be credited with a kill assist by 2050

May 27, 10:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.39%chance

355

OptionVotes

YES

NO

155

65

Will "Don't let people buy credit with borrowed funds" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 18, 7:39 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will Section 45X Advanced Manufacturing Production Tax Credit be cut in at least half by 2027?

Jul 15, 12:39 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will more than 50 percent of IRA Sections 45, 45Y, 48 and 48E tax credits be cut by EOY2027

Jul 15, 1:03 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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