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Prediction markets for Crew

Will the first crewed Starship to Mars launch within 4 years as Elon Musk says?

Sep 8, 6:55 PMMar 1, 4:59 AM

1.96%chance

3516750

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8275

457

Will Artemis III be flown with a crewed landing?

Oct 28, 6:09 AMJan 1, 10:59 AM

2.12%chance

2611065

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6712

100

Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2035?

Dec 25, 1:02 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

30.86%chance

395422

OptionVotes

YES

NO

999

983

Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2040?

Dec 23, 2:36 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

43%chance

304305

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1041

961

Will at least one crewed Starship leave Earth heading for Mars in the 2028/2029 launch window?

Sep 8, 12:29 AMMar 31, 3:59 PM

5.03%chance

84005

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4345

230

Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2045?

Dec 24, 12:47 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

57.41%chance

373563

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1165

872

Will there be a crewed mission to Venus before 2050?

Dec 15, 1:41 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

28.02%chance

292140

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

895

Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2055?

Dec 29, 1:15 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

77.08%chance

221922

OptionVotes

NO

YES

262

151

Will there be a crewed mission to Venus before 2060?

Dec 17, 11:09 AMFeb 5, 10:59 PM

46.2%chance

271826

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1215

596

Will there be a crewed mission to Venus before 2055?

Dec 16, 3:54 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

39%chance

321745

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1117

750

Will there be a crewed mission to Jupiter before 2050?

Dec 20, 11:15 AMJan 7, 10:59 PM

35.67%chance

191389

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1148

580

Will there be a crewed mission to Jupiter before 2055?

Dec 24, 12:28 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

44.54%chance

211094

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1212

587

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