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Prediction markets for Crew

Will the first crewed Starship to Mars launch within 4 years as Elon Musk says?

Sep 8, 6:55 PMMar 1, 4:59 AM

2.17%chance

3517355

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7670

470

Will Artemis III be flown with a crewed landing?

Oct 28, 6:09 AMJan 1, 10:59 AM

2.12%chance

2611065

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6712

100

Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2035?

Dec 25, 1:02 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

27.98%chance

395522

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1099

941

Will the next Starliner crewed flight be a complete Success?

Aug 25, 9:02 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

38.06%chance

425217

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1276

784

Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2040?

Dec 23, 2:36 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

44.42%chance

324417

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1009

986

Will at least one crewed Starship leave Earth heading for Mars in the 2028/2029 launch window?

Sep 8, 12:29 AMMar 31, 3:59 PM

4.27%chance

94026

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4735

211

Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2045?

Dec 24, 12:47 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

58.64%chance

393749

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1195

850

Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2055?

Dec 29, 1:15 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

74.94%chance

252282

OptionVotes

NO

YES

243

157

Will there be a crewed mission to Venus before 2050?

Dec 15, 1:41 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

26.57%chance

312250

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1001

945

Will there be a crewed mission to Venus before 2060?

Dec 17, 11:09 AMFeb 5, 10:59 PM

44.1%chance

291968

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1184

633

Will there be a crewed mission to Venus before 2055?

Dec 16, 3:54 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

36.96%chance

341888

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1088

796

Will there be a crewed mission to Jupiter before 2055?

Dec 24, 12:28 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

29%chance

251870

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1003

955

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