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Top stories

Putin Wins Alaska Summit Against Trump, Faces U.S. Criticism; First U.S. Meeting Since 2014 and "Yalta 2.0" Vision Highlighted

US Foreign Policy

Putin Wins Alaska Summit Against Trump, Faces U.S. Criticism; First U.S. Meeting Since 2014 and "Yalta 2.0" Vision Highlighted

Authors

17

2 days ago

Prediction markets for Crimea invasion

By the time a ceasefire or peace treaty between Ukraine & Russia is signed, will UA partially control Crimea?

Sep 13, 8:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.14%chance

276183

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4100

604

[Metaculus] Will Ukraine lose non-Crimean territory by February 2029, compared to 2013?

Nov 16, 5:04 PMFeb 25, 3:00 PM

95.53%chance

204375

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2059

892

Will Russia detonate a nuclear device on Ukraine soil by December 31, 2026?

Nov 8, 5:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5%chance

101137

OptionVotes

YES

NO

436

23

If no ceasefire in 2025, what will the pop-weighted democracy index of pre-war Russian territory be in 2028?

Mar 1, 7:09 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

21005

If ceasefire in 2025, what will the pop-weighted democracy index of pre-war Russian territory be in 2028?

Mar 1, 7:09 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2958

When will martial law be lifted in at least 3/4 of Ukraine?

Mar 18, 11:02 PMMay 29, 8:59 PM

5197

OptionProbability

Until resolution date

Until EOY 2026

Until EOY 2025

Until EOY 2024

72

58

47

0

If ceasefire in 2025, what will the pop-weighted democracy index of pre-war Ukrainian territory be in 2028?

Mar 1, 7:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

239

If no ceasefire in 2025, what will the pop-weighted democracy index of pre-war Ukrainian territory be in 2028?

Mar 1, 7:09 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

236

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