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Prediction markets for Crimean

Who wins the US presidential election in 2024? / Will Russia invade a NATO member before 2030?

Dec 17, 11:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6823527

OptionProbability

Trump / Russia does not invade

Trump / Russia invades

Not Trump / Russia does not invade

Not Trump / Russia invades

64

33

2

1

Will Ukraine control any part of Crimea for at least a week before the end of 2025?

Jan 1, 8:12 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7%chance

4819466

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3645

274

[Metaculus] Will Ukraine lose non-Crimean territory by February 2029, compared to 2013?

Nov 16, 5:04 PMFeb 25, 3:00 PM

95.53%chance

204375

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2059

892

Will Ukraine invade any additional "minor constituent" (check description) of the Russian Federation before 2030-1-1?

Feb 6, 7:51 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

12.32%chance

8296

OptionVotes

YES

NO

263

113

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