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Prediction markets for Critical Role
If a friendly AI takes control of humanity, which of the propositions ought it find true?
May 30, 8:38 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
2211183
OptionProbability
94
93
93
93
92
90
89
89
86
72
67
66
63
52
52
50
50
42
41
32
31
20
10
Will a drug designed with significant contribution from an AlphaFold-like system pass a Phase I trial by end of 2025?
Sep 6, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
20.67%chance
569741
OptionVotes
1959
510
By 2028, there will exist an obvious place where digital nomads can earn a living by producing alignment data for AI.
Feb 17, 10:51 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
19.5%chance
121396
OptionVotes
2032
492
OptionVotes
233
43
SpaceX announces decommissioning of Dragon spacecraft before September 3, 2025
Jun 6, 5:11 AMSep 2, 11:59 PM
1%chance
7914
OptionVotes
995
10
Will Nestlé publicly apologize for its role in past human rights abuses by 2030?
Aug 7, 2:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
38.74%chance
6284
OptionVotes
1258
795
Will Campaign 4 of Critical Role use their own RPG system?
Jan 3, 8:24 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM
94.51%chance
9284
OptionVotes
394
60
Will Fadzai Madzingira no longer be employed by Twitch's Trust and Safety team by the end of 2025?
Oct 21, 11:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
52.8%chance
3252
OptionVotes
1058
946
OptionVotes
232
73
OptionVotes
127
79
Brazilian Congressman Glauber Braga's mandate revoked by Chamber of Deputies?
Apr 30, 11:45 PMOct 1, 11:43 PM
53.04%chance
247
OptionVotes
216
204