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Prediction markets for Cross

Will many open source advocates agree frontier models have crossed capability thresholds too dangerous to open source?

May 8, 10:15 PMJun 2, 3:59 AM

10.16%chance

5621736

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1366

913

If Trump wins, will there be more than 2 million illegal border crossings in the US-Mexico border in FY 2026?

Mar 9, 10:33 PMOct 31, 6:59 AM

12.5%chance

1818195

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2423

581

When will a new mainline Animal Crossing game be released on a Nintendo console?

Sep 11, 9:12 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

295329

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2026

2029

Not before 2030

2025 or earlier

35

23

15

14

9

4

Will a Bering Strait crossing be announced by Russia and the US, in 2025?

Mar 6, 9:32 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4.27%chance

63857

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4737

211

Will a Bering Strait crossing be announced by Russia and the US, before Jan 20 2029?

Mar 6, 9:37 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

9.97%chance

72071

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3004

333

Will India's GDP cross $7 trillion by 2030?

Jul 31, 1:08 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

63.15%chance

331741

OptionVotes

YES

NO

987

979

Will OpenAI release a cross-platform web browser by the end of 2026?

Nov 22, 10:01 AMDec 31, 2:59 PM

70.37%chance

10932

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1541

649

Sometime before 2031, AI is going to cross a generality threshold that allows for recursive self-improvement, and then FOOM to superhuman capability. Before that point humanity must solve AI safety or be helpless.

Dec 24, 3:53 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

27.15%chance

17792

OptionVotes

NO

YES

990

970

Will a crossing of the Strait of Gibraltar, between Morocco and Spain, have started construction by 2035?

Jul 4, 8:16 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

33.2%chance

15533

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1011

959

Will another manmade probe cross the heliopause before 2075?

Sep 17, 2:51 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

88.49%chance

14501

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1232

937

Twitter (X) Crosses 1 billion Monthly Active Users by 2030

Mar 26, 6:25 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

24.47%chance

14456

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1275

875

Will a crossing of the Bab-el-Mandeb, between Yemen and Djibouti or Eritrea, have started construction by 2040?

Jul 4, 8:28 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

21.22%chance

13326

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1122

944

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