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Prediction markets for Cross

If Trump wins, will there be more than 2 million illegal border crossings in the US-Mexico border in FY 2026?

Mar 9, 10:33 PMOct 31, 6:59 AM

9.5%chance

2126162

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2938

518

When will a new mainline Animal Crossing game be released on a Nintendo console?

Sep 11, 9:12 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

3722802

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2029

Not before 2030

2026

2025 or earlier

38

27

18

8

7

1

Will 100 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz in a day in 2026?

May 5, 6:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

87.43%chance

223288

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1917

780

Will a Bering Strait crossing be announced by Russia and the US, before Jan 20 2029?

Mar 6, 9:37 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

10.2%chance

92131

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2967

337

Ahmed al Ahmed awarded Cross of Valour for disarming Bondi shooter by EOY 2026?

Dec 14, 12:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.46%chance

101932

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1664

601

Will India's GDP cross $7 trillion by 2030?

Jul 31, 1:08 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

62.58%chance

361851

OptionVotes

YES

NO

996

964

Will 200 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz in a day in 2026?

May 27, 3:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.13%chance

141361

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1992

502

Twitter (X) Crosses 1 billion Monthly Active Users by 2030

Mar 26, 6:25 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

20.39%chance

201032

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1496

812

Sometime before 2031, AI is going to cross a generality threshold that allows for recursive self-improvement, and then FOOM to superhuman capability. Before that point humanity must solve AI safety or be helpless.

Dec 24, 3:53 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

28.65%chance

18812

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

919

Will a crossing of the Strait of Gibraltar, between Morocco and Spain, have started construction by 2035?

Jul 4, 8:16 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

32.87%chance

16543

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1006

969

Will Volcanic Island cross $1000 before 2030?

Dec 18, 2:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.58%chance

3436

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1406

711

Will a crossing of the Bab-el-Mandeb, between Yemen and Djibouti or Eritrea, have started construction by 2040?

Jul 4, 8:28 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

22.1%chance

15338

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1079

956

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