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Prediction markets for Crucial

Will a drug designed with significant contribution from an AlphaFold-like system pass a Phase I trial by end of 2025?

Sep 6, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19.3%chance

569655

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2045

489

What is the one piece?

Feb 26, 5:11 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

352746

OptionProbability

Knowledge about the Void Century

Something else

A vast treasure accumulated by Gol D. Roger

Ancient Weapon from the Void Century

Special eternal pose pointing to a location crucial for changing the world

Bink's Sake

The devil fruit tree

Time travel device

All Blue

The rope seem in the logo

Nothing

79

68

66

63

59

57

53

40

36

22

18

Will humanity establish the foundations for a Type 1 civilization by the end of the 21st century?

Dec 31, 8:58 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

54.61%chance

281702

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1032

938

Will I send my autoimmune disease (Hashimoto’s) into remission through diet and lifestyle changes alone?

May 16, 12:24 AMSep 23, 12:02 AM

37.78%chance

11875

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1283

779

Will Neal Stephenson publish a novel in which AI is a crucial plot element by the end of 2026?

Mar 29, 2:45 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.44%chance

10671

OptionVotes

YES

NO

604

70

Any of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins 10%+ of vote for a Congressional seat in 2026?

Jul 10, 1:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.73%chance

13546

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1158

864

Will Intel spin-off its foundry business by 2026?

Jan 18, 11:43 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

39.71%chance

5330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1232

812

Will AI companies be crucially important to American Progress in the next 2 decades?

Nov 16, 4:36 PMNov 17, 7:59 AM

90.35%chance

8192

OptionVotes

NO

YES

252

138

Will the Phase 2 Trials of Lepodisiran be a Success?

May 19, 12:05 AMMar 5, 10:59 PM

57.15%chance

3160

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1155

866

Will Open Source chip development have been a crucial factor for enabling a global AI moratorium?

Jan 17, 3:06 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

19.5%chance

8142

OptionVotes

YES

NO

458

289

Will the Phase 3 Trials of Olpasiran be a Success?

May 20, 5:18 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

55.04%chance

3110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1106

904

What is the crucial bottleneck holding back nuclear (fission) power?

Nov 14, 8:28 PM

260

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