Cryptography News

Q-Day before 2030?

Apr 1, 9:43 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.22%chance

8988238

OptionVotes

YES

86621

36681

Which computational universe do we live in?

Sep 17, 5:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

283938

OptionProbability

Cryptomania

Minicrypt

Heuristica

Pessiland

Algorithmica

In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number?

Mar 23, 2:56 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

223198

OptionProbability

2025-2034

2035-2039

2055-2100

2040-2044

2045-2049

2050-2054

Will there be an “overnight” math revolution changing what we known as encryption forever by 2028

Aug 18, 9:37 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.11%chance

423048

OptionVotes

YES

2074

735

Which of these research ideas will I publish or preprint by end of 2026?

Dec 10, 4:53 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

71671

OptionProbability

Grover Project w/ Or

[James's system of equations for multichoice mechanism versions](https://manifold.markets/JamesGrugett/solve-these-equations-for-a-simpler#pcfde0bgc1)

Formalizing "Categorical Composable Cryptography"

SNARK project w/ Sanjam

Data availability phase changes

`nazg`: Proving Ring Equalities Done Wrong

Post-quantum backdoorable VDFs

Iuvenes Project w/ Or

Mechanism design to incentivize `mathlib` contribution

Optimal sampling for statistical democracy w/ Surya

Formal Proof for Marlin w/ Pratyush

Eigenlayer Project w/ Or

NeRF the world

TEE via physics/materials science w/ Sylvain

Krugman's Interstellar trade redux

Solving Hanabi

Automated Market Maker Monte Carlo w/ @EvanDaniel

Quantum cowry shells

range saturation tactic

Mixing for slow traders

Homotopy theory DeFi

Violating classical consensus impossibility results with quantum

Poisson average-case TSP

Efficient polynomial multiplication for mathlib

Paradoxical hiding in ROM

100

Which sector will be the first to widely adopt quantum computing for production workloads?

Jan 7, 5:45 AMJan 7, 5:41 AM

12981

OptionProbability

No sector shows “wide adoption” by 31 Dec 2032

Finance (portfolio optimization, risk, pricing)

Pharma / chemistry (drug or material discovery)

Cybersecurity / cryptography

Logistics / mobility (routing, supply chain, EV fleets)

Government / defence

Will the US government adopt and deploy a post-quantum cryptography standard before 2030?

Nov 17, 2:13 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

86.6%chance

17596

OptionVotes

YES

1226

927

Did the NSA work to weaken post-quantum cryptography?

Aug 5, 11:19 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

59.84%chance

20504

OptionVotes

YES

320

247

Will psychedelic cryptography be depicted in a mainstream film released in the US before the end of 2028?

Nov 8, 7:20 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

37%chance

6144

OptionVotes

YES

193

114

What will break Bitcoin's secp256k1 cryptography first, if broken before 2030?

Apr 12, 6:42 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

242

OptionProbability

Not broken by 2030

Quantum computational (Shor's algorithm or variant requiring quantum hardware)

AI / Classical mathematical breakthrough (runs on classical hardware)

AI-accelerated quantum hybrid (AI reduces the problem, quantum hardware still essential)

Will quantum computing achieve practical advantage in cryptography before 2030?

Apr 8, 8:57 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

29.06%chance

733

OptionVotes

YES

We should explore this cryptography, security, or auxiliary area more for AI safety

Nov 14, 8:58 PM

Cryptography News

Prediction markets for Cryptography

Prediction markets for Cryptography

Prediction markets for Cryptography

Q-Day before 2030?

Which computational universe do we live in?

In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number?

Will there be an “overnight” math revolution changing what we known as encryption forever by 2028

Which of these research ideas will I publish or preprint by end of 2026?

Which sector will be the first to widely adopt quantum computing for production workloads?

Will the US government adopt and deploy a post-quantum cryptography standard before 2030?

Did the NSA work to weaken post-quantum cryptography?

Will psychedelic cryptography be depicted in a mainstream film released in the US before the end of 2028?

What will break Bitcoin's secp256k1 cryptography first, if broken before 2030?

Will quantum computing achieve practical advantage in cryptography before 2030?

We should explore this cryptography, security, or auxiliary area more for AI safety

Latest stories