Cryptography News

Will AES-256 encryption be broken by 2070?

Sep 20, 7:25 PMJan 27, 7:59 AM

84.7%chance

194634

OptionVotes

YES

1981

134

Which computational universe do we live in?

Sep 17, 5:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

283938

OptionProbability

Cryptomania

Minicrypt

Heuristica

Pessiland

Algorithmica

In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number?

Mar 23, 2:56 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

223062

OptionProbability

2025-2034

2035-2039

2040-2044

2055-2100

2045-2049

2050-2054

Which of these research ideas will I publish or preprint by end of 2026?

Dec 10, 4:53 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

71671

OptionProbability

Grover Project w/ Or

[James's system of equations for multichoice mechanism versions](https://manifold.markets/JamesGrugett/solve-these-equations-for-a-simpler#pcfde0bgc1)

Formalizing "Categorical Composable Cryptography"

SNARK project w/ Sanjam

Data availability phase changes

`nazg`: Proving Ring Equalities Done Wrong

Post-quantum backdoorable VDFs

Iuvenes Project w/ Or

Mechanism design to incentivize `mathlib` contribution

Optimal sampling for statistical democracy w/ Surya

Formal Proof for Marlin w/ Pratyush

Eigenlayer Project w/ Or

NeRF the world

TEE via physics/materials science w/ Sylvain

Krugman's Interstellar trade redux

Solving Hanabi

Automated Market Maker Monte Carlo w/ @EvanDaniel

Quantum cowry shells

range saturation tactic

Mixing for slow traders

Homotopy theory DeFi

Violating classical consensus impossibility results with quantum

Poisson average-case TSP

Efficient polynomial multiplication for mathlib

Paradoxical hiding in ROM

100

Which sector will be the first to widely adopt quantum computing for production workloads?

Jan 7, 5:45 AMJan 7, 5:41 AM

9913

OptionProbability

No sector shows “wide adoption” by 31 Dec 2032

Finance (portfolio optimization, risk, pricing)

Pharma / chemistry (drug or material discovery)

Logistics / mobility (routing, supply chain, EV fleets)

Cybersecurity / cryptography

Government / defence

Will the US government adopt and deploy a post-quantum cryptography standard before 2030?

Nov 17, 2:13 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

86.6%chance

17596

OptionVotes

YES

1226

927

Did the NSA work to weaken post-quantum cryptography?

Aug 5, 11:19 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

59.84%chance

20504

OptionVotes

YES

320

247

Will it become public that Monero has been compromised currently before 2030?

Jun 27, 1:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.08%chance

7265

OptionVotes

YES

1249

801

Which solution becomes the most adopted response to the quantum threat in crypto?

Jan 26, 7:22 AMFeb 24, 11:59 PM

8253

OptionProbability

4. Decentralized post-quantum security networks (e.g., Naoris Protocol) • Attractive because security is network-verified, not key-verified. • Can overlay existing chains without requiring disruptive forks. • Provides instant scalability

5. No dominant solution by 2030 •The market remains fragmented. •PQC adoption varies across chains.

2. Hybrid classical–post-quantum cryptography • Popular interim solution. • Lower migration friction.

1. Post-quantum cryptographic upgrades (e.g., Dilithium, Falcon) • Backed by NIST selections, regulatory clarity. • High probability but hard to integrate into existing chains.

3. Hardware-based quantum-resistant security modules • Favored by regulated institutions. • Trusted execution environments, secure enclaves.

Will psychedelic cryptography be depicted in a mainstream film released in the US before the end of 2028?

Nov 8, 7:20 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

37%chance

6144

OptionVotes

YES

193

114

Will quantum computing achieve practical advantage in cryptography before 2030?

Apr 8, 8:57 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

38%chance

OptionVotes

YES

We should explore this cryptography, security, or auxiliary area more for AI safety

Nov 14, 8:58 PM

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Will AES-256 encryption be broken by 2070?

Which computational universe do we live in?

In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number?

Which of these research ideas will I publish or preprint by end of 2026?

Which sector will be the first to widely adopt quantum computing for production workloads?

Will the US government adopt and deploy a post-quantum cryptography standard before 2030?

Did the NSA work to weaken post-quantum cryptography?

Will it become public that Monero has been compromised currently before 2030?

Which solution becomes the most adopted response to the quantum threat in crypto?

Will psychedelic cryptography be depicted in a mainstream film released in the US before the end of 2028?

Will quantum computing achieve practical advantage in cryptography before 2030?

We should explore this cryptography, security, or auxiliary area more for AI safety

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