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OptionProbability
A set of radical beliefs that do not fit on a strict left/right paradigm
An attempt to terrorize people into bringing down the system of private insurance in the United States
Wrongful delay or deny insurance claims
An attempt to change the incentive structure present at the CEO level of UHC and similar companies
Chronic Back Pain
Mental illness
Radical Leftism
Fame
Assassin suffered a personal tragedy at the hands of UnitedHealthcare
Business
Manipulation of the share price of UnitedHealth Inc for profit.
Genetic predisposition (Italian)
Zizian Murder Cult member
Targeted hit/contract killing
brainwashed right wing anti-vax lunatic
Personal conflict with CEO
Random act of violence
82
69
48
39
36
21
18
16
10
3
3
3
3
2
2
1
0
OptionVotes
NO
YES
2880
1806
OptionProbability
Magic: The Gathering
Cult of the Lamb
Death's Door
Shift Happens
Baba is You
Understand
The Witness
Hollow Knight
It Takes Two
Unravel Two
Portal 2
Braid
Portal
Superliminal
The Talos Principle
The Talos Principle 2
Antichamber
Perspective
Portal Reloaded
Portal Stories: Mel
Thinking with Time Machine
Cell Machine
Bokura
Hades
Hades 2
Keep Talking and Nobody Explodes
Superhot
Slay the Princess
Mind over Magnet
Escape Academy
Pico Park 2
Viewfinder
Silksong
Baba Is You XTREME
blue prince
The Room
Pico Park
Wargroove
Patrick's Parabox
Q.U.B.E. 2
Q.U.B.E.
The Stanley Parable
Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A
Stardew Valley
Splendor (tabletop game)
We Were Here Too
Advance Wars
Mini Motorways
Human: Fall Flat
Outer Wilds
Don't Starve
Doki Doki Literature Club!
We Were Here
Castle Crashers
Spiritfarer
scarlet hollow
Terraria
Chants of Sennaar
Patch Quest
Minecraft
999
Detroit: Become Human
Wild Woods
Manifold Garden
We Were Here Forever
Goragoa
Subnauticta
We Were Here Expeditions: The FriendShip
Tokimeki Memorial
Baldur's Gate 3
Beyond: Two Souls
Danganronpa: Trigger Happy Havoc
What Remains of Edith Finch
Clandestine
Nobody Saves the World
Lovers in Dangerous Spacetime
Glider (1988)
Split Fiction
Rayman Legends
LittleBigPlanet 3
Lara Croft and the Guardian of Light
Bean and nothingness
Space Station 13
Nomifactory
Monifactory
Rebirth of the Night
Induction
Akane
Zero Time Dilemma
Morrowind
going under: internships are heck
Animal Well
English Country Tune
English Country Tune
Satisfactory
Expedition 33
Quantum Conundrum
Stoneshard
Final Fantasy Tactics (original)
Final Fantasy Tactics Advanced
Final Fantasy Tactics Advanced 2
Octopath Travel
Project Triangle Strategy
Sokosoko
Physics-Breaking Boxes
Inbox Unbox
Linelith
Boxing Up Bamboo
Frog Wizard Gem Quest
The Vacuum Cleaner in the Room
Clockwork Cat
salt and sactuary
From Muddled to Clean
Path to Nowhere
Arknights
Defender's Quest: Valley of the Forgotten
Lorelei and the Laser Eyes
A Monster's Expedition
Lingo
Solas 128
Gentoo Rescue
Ugly
Toki Tori 2+
Veggie Quest: The Puzzle Game
Isles of Sea and Sky
Chroma Zero
Paquerette
Riven
Baba Files Taxes
Baba Is Quiz
A Solitaire Mystery
IT'S A BLOCK-PUSHING GAME
Leaf's Odyssey
Submachine
LOK Digital
Leap Year
Recursed
Fever Meme
Zero Escape: Virtue's Last Reward
Moonlighter
Myst
We Were Here Together
Hyperrogue
Void Stranger
PEAK
Sackboy: A Big Adventure
Arc Raiders
Unstable Unicorns 🦄
Mario Party
Magicka
Exploding kittens
Yume Nikki
The House of DaVinci
Tunic
Moving Out
Moving Out
Timberborn
Trine 2
A Couple Of Cubes
Root (tabletop or digital version)
Children of Morta
Rainworld
Deadly Rooms of Death
Fez
CrossCode
Cocoon
Islands of Insight
Monopoly
USSR Simulator (https://flowlab.io/game/play/1151923) (trash but still)
SteamWorld Dig
Snakebird
Chess
Slay the Spire
Among Us
Stephen's Sausage Roll
Amazing Chicken Adventures
Wingspan
Can of Wormholes
Disco Elysium
Overcooked
Return of the Obra Dinn
Inscryption
Slice and Dice
Teardown
Astroneer
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47
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40
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38
38
35
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34
31
30
28
28
27
25
25
25
25
25
24
22
22
15
10
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
#144 – Athena Aktipis on why cancer is actually one of the fundamental phenomena in our universe
#145 – Christopher Brown on why slavery abolition wasn't inevitable
#146 – Robert Long on why large language models like GPT (probably) aren't conscious
#147 – Spencer Greenberg on stopping valueless papers from getting into top journals
#148 – Johannes Ackva on unfashionable climate interventions that work, and fashionable ones that don't
#151 – Ajeya Cotra on accidentally teaching AI models to deceive us
#149 – Tim LeBon on how altruistic perfectionism is self-defeating
#150 – Tom Davidson on how quickly AI could transform the world
#152 – Joe Carlsmith on navigating serious philosophical confusion
#153 – Elie Hassenfeld on two big picture critiques of GiveWell's approach, and six lessons from their recent work
#154 – Rohin Shah on DeepMind and trying to fairly hear out both AI doomers and doubters
#155 – Lennart Heim on the compute governance era and what has to come after
#156 – Markus Anderljung on how to regulate cutting-edge AI models
#157 – Ezra Klein on existential risk from AI and what DC could do about it
#158 – Holden Karnofsky on how AIs might take over even if they're no smarter than humans, and his 4-part playbook for AI risk
#159 – Jan Leike on OpenAI's massive push to make superintelligence safe in 4 years or less
#160 – Hannah Ritchie on why it makes sense to be optimistic about the environment
#161 – Michael Webb on whether AI will soon cause job loss, lower incomes, and higher inequality — or the opposite
#162 – Mustafa Suleyman on getting Washington and Silicon Valley to tame AI
#163 – Toby Ord on the perils of maximising the good that you do
#166 – Tantum Collins on what he's learned as an AI policy insider at the White House, DeepMind and elsewhere
#167 – Seren Kell on the research gaps holding back alternative proteins from mass adoption
#168 – Ian Morris on whether deep history says we're heading for an intelligence explosion
#164 – Kevin Esvelt on cults that want to kill everyone, stealth vs wildfire pandemics, and how he felt inventing gene drives
#165 – Anders Sandberg on war in space, whether civilisations age, and the best things possible in our universe
#169 – Paul Niehaus on whether cash transfers cause economic growth, and keeping theft to acceptable levels
#170 – Santosh Harish on how air pollution is responsible for ~12% of global deaths — and how to get that number down
#171 – Alison Young on how top labs have jeopardised public health with repeated biosafety failures
#172 – Bryan Caplan on why you should stop reading the news
#173 – Jeff Sebo on digital minds, and how to avoid sleepwalking into a major moral catastrophe
#174 – Nita Farahany on the neurotechnology already being used to convict criminals and manipulate workers
#175 – Lucia Coulter on preventing lead poisoning for $1.66 per child
#176 – Nathan Labenz on the final push for AGI, understanding OpenAI's leadership drama, and red-teaming frontier models
99
99
53
41
34
31
30
24
18
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14
OptionProbability
China launches military drills around Taiwan
Warnings from Western intelligence agencies about Chinese invasion preparations
China engages in a partial/total naval blockade of Taiwan
Submarine cables around Taiwan are damaged
A western think-tank warns about a Chinese naval build-up
Major cyberattack on Taiwanese infrastructure
Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in Taiwan's military
At least one western country charters a fight to evacuate its citizens from Taiwan
China shoots down a Taiwanese aircraft
At least one western country tells its citizens to leave China
A Chinese entity releases a frontier AI model
Taiwan revokes visa of pro-Beijing influencer
Taiwan shoots down a Chinese aircraft
China issues new warning to its citizens about travelling to the US
China fires missiles/rockets/artillery/railguns over Taiwan
China declares a no-fly zone over Taiwan
China switches its industrial overcapacity over to military production
A military ship sinks in the Pacific in suspicious circumstances (or due to clear evidence of hostile action)
Reports that China is building new concentration camps
A popular Chinese movie is released containing a scene with an amphibious assault
Chinese government tells large numbers of its citizens to return to China
Chinese soldiers are involved in active combat outside of Chinese territory (excluding UN peacekeeping)
A US company has a market cap of at least 5 trillion dollars at any point in the 12-month window
Significant damage to low-earth orbit satellites (compared to per-satellite damage level in 2024) -- including but not limited to hostile action and kessler syndrome
Reports of drone activity over US military bases in the Pacific
Major cyberattack on Japanese infrastructure
A Taiwanese politician dies in suspicious circumstances
Major cyberattack on South Korean infrastructure
Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in the US military
Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in Japan's military
Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in South Korea's military
the US implements tariffs of at least 25% on Taiwanese semiconductors (implemented at any point in the 12-month window)
A US semiconductor facility is damaged in a fire/explosion or act of sabotage
At least three civilian flights to Taiwan are diverted to land in China
Significant constitutional crisis in the US
Nasdaq is at 60% of its previous peak at any time in the 12-month period
Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in Australia's military
Reports about the discovery of a Chinese spy in India's military
A civilian ship sinks in the Pacific in suspicious circumstances (or due to clear evidence of hostile action)
The US implements significant travel restrictions on Chinese citizens (compared to 2024)
Reports of a major corruption scandal involving a Taiwanese/US/Japanese/South-Korean semiconductor company
Oil prices are at >=100 dollars a barrel at any time in the 12-month window
Reports that a large scale cyberattack has physically damaged AI chips in the West
Credible reports in Western news media about activity relating to biolabs in North Korea
1 million humanoid robots have been manufactured
50k soldiers from NATO countries are stationed in Ukraine
A popular Western podcaster/youtuber is prevented from leaving a country by China/Russia
the US implements tariffs of at least 50% on most imports from China
A US movie with a budget of at least 30 million dollars is released containing a US vs China war scene
The US bombs Iran
Major cyberattack on Western frontier AI lab
Major Earthquake in/near Japan > 7 Richter
Attack on a US military asset in the Pacific
A Taiwanese semiconductor manufacturing facility is damaged in a fire/explosion or act of sabotage
An apocalypse cult attacks a civilian or military target in Taiwan
A human walks on the Moon
At least three prominent Taiwanese AI researchers disappear
Reports that the US has used a sixth-generation fighter in combat operations
Reports that China has used a sixth-generation fighter in combat operations
The US reduces sanctions on Russia
Ukraine loses the Donbass region in a ceasefire/peace deal with Russia
The US attempts to expand its territory by force
Reports of suspicious electromagnetic phenomena in the upper atmosphere
Elon Musk is pardoned
China arrests / takes hostage at least 100 westerners (non-taiwanese) on spurious grounds
The US attempts to expand its territory by economic coercion
Attempted coup in Taiwan
the US implements tariffs of at least 75% on most imports from China
Donald Trump is replaced as the US's leader
The US withdraws from NATO
100k soldiers from NATO countries are stationed in Ukraine
Vladimir Putin is replaced as Russia's leader
The US military performs combat operations in Mexico
A NATO soldier on active duty is killed by Russia
Russia attacks a NATO member (excluding attacks on submarine cables)
AGI is achieved by a non-Chinese entity
North Korea detonates a nuclear weapon
AGI is achieved by a Chinese entity
Xi Jinping is replaced as China's leader
India detonates a nuclear weapon
Russia cedes territory to China
Vladivostok is not under Russia's control
Ukraine signs a deal with the US giving it access to its minerals
Zelensky is replaced as the leader of Ukraine
Reports in western media about a Taiwanese businessperson falling out of the window of a tall building
Taiwanese political leader dies in small plane accident (w/out being attacked by kinetic or other physical weapon)
Chinese soldiers present in Europe in official combat roles (including peacekeeping)
An AI datacenter is hit by a significant EMP blast
China executes at least 5 citizens of western countries
A major pandemic occurs
Attempted coup in Russia
Attempted coup in the Phillipines
The US military performs combat operations on Palestinian territory
The US detonates a nuclear weapon
The US attacks a NATO member
Tulsi Gabbard is arrested on treason charges
A nuclear weapon is detonated
Attempted coup in China
Japan takes control of the Kuril Islands
Successful revolution in Iran
Russia detonates a nuclear weapon
Elon Musk is arrested on treason charges
Attempted coup in the US
Strong evidence supporting the covid lab-leak theory emerges
China detonates a nuclear weapon
South Korea detonates a nuclear weapon
Japan detonates a nuclear weapon
Australia detonates a nuclear weapon
A room temperature superconductor is discovered
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22
15
13
12
7
5
OptionProbability
The site is never marketed well enough outside of the rationalist-adjacent community, and there are not enough rationalist-adjacent people to sustain the site.
It is never able to get a critical mass of cis women.
The basic premise of the site is too complicated for people, who prefer to use simpler dating apps.
The concept of gambling on romance is unappealing to most people.
Too few people are interested in trading on random people's matches
It just never ends up taking off, without any particular flaw being the obvious cause
It is never able to get a critical mass of active profiles.
People don't think strangers are more qualified to choose matches for them than themselves
Not enough rationalussy
Other
extreme "everything is public" approach alienates userbase
Manifold as a whole shuts down without it ever having taken off
Unpopular combo of excessive transparency imposed on users / lack of transparency from staff
James pivots to something else
Everyone on earth finds love
people leave the site after finding a match
lack of moderation / lots of harassment make the platform unpleasant to be on
Stripe threatens to stop processing payments
(threat of) legal action
another dating app captures our target audience
It is never able to get a critical mass of good SREs.
It allows minors to join and gets bad PR or legal issues as a result
Messaging failure: The unique value proposition is clear, predictive market match making, however the deliverable does not appear to be clear. Manifold.love could be calibrated to deliver hook-ups or long-term relationships, not both.
Markets are not predictive due to difficulty measuring or defining outcomes, or due to low probability of outcomes
The administration team proves incapable of writing or enforcing rules that effectively keep members safe, and this causes some form of scandal.
All the good dates join @Mira 's cult and the remainder are left to suffer alone - wailing and gnashing their teeth as incels.
It gets a critical mass of fake profiles offering services users are not interested in.
21
20
12
11
10
6
5
3
2
2
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
A religious cult
Living in a simulated world with LLM-like hallucinations/inconsistencies
Significant wealth/class disparity
Human gene selection or manipulation
Artificial wombs
Robots hard to distinguish from humans
LLM-powered viewer interaction with the plot
Refugee crisis
Food shortage
Setting where Apple Vision Pro-like headsets are mandatory
Drone warfare
Water shortage
Prediction markets
Decarbonisation / degrowth
85
76
66
59
54
49
37
20
17
15
15
2
1
1
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1463
220
OptionProbability
NO
YES
479
109
OptionVotes
YES
NO
230
43
OptionVotes
YES
NO
132
75
OptionVotes
NO
YES
111
90