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Prediction markets for Current Assessment

Will GiveWell fund Attractive toxic sugar baits for malaria control by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 6:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.7%chance

266994

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7748

3856

Will the Economist Intelligent Unit stop classifying the United States as a democracy before 2030?

Mar 28, 8:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.48%chance

204157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2251

444

"Will AOH1996 boost 5yr survival >35% for min. 2 of these cancers: brain, lung, cervical, ovarian?"

Aug 3, 3:48 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

19.35%chance

434113

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1154

931

Will there be a peer-reviewed, widely accepted scientific explanation of how consciousness emerges by 31/Dec/2033?

Sep 2, 10:03 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

16.6%chance

333287

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1028

573

Will Jacob Pfau think that the Eliciting Latent Knowledge research program has achieved something important by October 20, 2026?

Oct 20, 7:33 PMOct 21, 3:59 AM

31.23%chance

142358

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1627

398

Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before 2030?

Mar 17, 10:40 PMJan 1, 7:00 PM

61.99%chance

562124

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1235

806

Will European investors face restrictions on their US stock holdings due to political risks before 2029?

Feb 26, 8:54 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15.41%chance

52115

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2343

427

By the end of 2030, will over a million rogue planets be found?

Feb 13, 11:57 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.08%chance

25697

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1210

879

Will the US government adopt and deploy a post-quantum cryptography standard before 2030?

Nov 17, 2:13 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

86.6%chance

17596

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1226

927

Will the Indian Rhinoceros (Rhinoceros unicornis) become extinct in the current century?

Feb 21, 8:31 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

43.07%chance

13500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

815

159

If the Take It Down Act becomes law, will it be used against satirists or journalists?

Mar 17, 4:13 PMMay 21, 6:59 AM

53.04%chance

7325

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1063

941

Will Hivelocity Go Bankrupt in 2025

May 13, 8:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47.99%chance

243

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1041

961

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