Current Conditions News

Germany’s July Ifo Business Climate Index at 88.6; UK Consumer Credit £1.417B and Mortgage Lending £5.34B Surge in June

9 days ago

Will an AI get at least silver on International Olympiad in Informatics (IOI) by end of 2025?

Aug 9, 4:47 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

97%chance

86394795

OptionVotes

YES

5595

161

am i fucked (will a CT scan show calcification in my basal ganglia)

Jul 22, 9:06 PMOct 21, 8:44 PM

2.81%chance

326299072

OptionVotes

YES

58813

1700

Will Donald Trump still be relevant in US politics by 2028?

Sep 7, 12:08 AMNov 1, 3:59 AM

88.36%chance

4429518

OptionVotes

YES

2486

591

Will AI get at least bronze on the International Olympiad in Informatics (IOI) before 2026?

Aug 9, 4:47 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

93.93%chance

7428716

OptionVotes

YES

3870

423

Will an AI produce encyclopedia-worthy philosophy by 2026?

Jan 25, 12:24 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

14.74%chance

21426846

OptionVotes

YES

4896

1014

Will the UK HS2 rail line between London and Birmingham be operational before 2031?

Feb 16, 9:15 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

5.26%chance

2411233

OptionVotes

YES

11928

1118

Will Koi be the first species we uplift?

Dec 20, 7:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.95%chance

728703

OptionVotes

YES

2438

1224

If the ICC brings charges against Netanyahu by 2026 (or doesn't), will any of its members announce withdrawal by 2030?

May 24, 6:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

104978

OptionProbability

Conditional on the ICC bringing charges against Netanyahu before 2026-01-01, at least one current member will announce withdrawal from the ICC before 2030-01-01.

Conditional on the ICC not bringing charges against Netanyahu before 2026-01-01, at least one current member will announce withdrawal from the ICC before 2030-01-01.

How old will Bryan Johnson be when he dies?

Jul 18, 8:52 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

74.34%chance

333019

OptionProbability

YES

1050

828

Will Jacob Pfau think that the Eliciting Latent Knowledge research program has achieved something important by October 20, 2026?

Oct 20, 7:33 PMOct 21, 3:59 AM

31.23%chance

142358

OptionVotes

YES

1627

398

If Trump wins, will the US AI Safety Institute receive an increase in Congressional appropriations for FY26?

Jun 30, 7:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.6%chance

141992

OptionVotes

YES

2498

936

Will SotA on SWE-Lancer (Diamond) reach 400K USD (80%) in 2025?

Apr 7, 2:51 PMJan 15, 11:59 PM

49.79%chance

424

OptionVotes

YES

5014

4986

Current Conditions News

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Prediction markets for Current Conditions

Prediction markets for Current Conditions

Prediction markets for Current Conditions

Will an AI get at least silver on International Olympiad in Informatics (IOI) by end of 2025?

am i fucked (will a CT scan show calcification in my basal ganglia)

Will Donald Trump still be relevant in US politics by 2028?

Will AI get at least bronze on the International Olympiad in Informatics (IOI) before 2026?

Will an AI produce encyclopedia-worthy philosophy by 2026?

Will the UK HS2 rail line between London and Birmingham be operational before 2031?

Will Koi be the first species we uplift?

If the ICC brings charges against Netanyahu by 2026 (or doesn't), will any of its members announce withdrawal by 2030?

How old will Bryan Johnson be when he dies?

Will Jacob Pfau think that the Eliciting Latent Knowledge research program has achieved something important by October 20, 2026?

If Trump wins, will the US AI Safety Institute receive an increase in Congressional appropriations for FY26?

Will SotA on SWE-Lancer (Diamond) reach 400K USD (80%) in 2025?

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