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US Domestic Policy
Politics
Study Using Census Data Finds 1.6 Million Fewer Unauthorized Immigrants Since January
Authors
25
2 days ago
Economics
Business
Kolko Says Reported Surge in Native-Born Jobs Is Statistical Mirage
Authors
6
1 day ago
Prediction markets for Current Population Survey
Prediction markets for Current Population Survey
Unemployment rate for recent US college grads exceeds 25% before 2030?
May 30, 8:04 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
9.38%
chance
5
4593
Option
Votes
YES
NO
5479
1093
Will there be >15% unemployment at any time prior to January 1st 2026?
Nov 16, 10:47 PM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
1.08%
chance
17
1905
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1407
61
Will there be more software developers employed in the United States in June 2026 than June 2025?
Jul 2, 8:15 PM
May 31, 11:59 PM
40.06%
chance
15
1677
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1223
818
Will everyone “Return To Office” (RTO) in 2025?
Dec 19, 3:45 PM
Dec 31, 4:00 AM
28.72%
chance
14
709
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1575
635
Will the Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) data series on FRED be greater than 4.5% on January 1, 2026?
Jun 1, 6:58 AM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
64.51%
chance
7
190
Option
Votes
NO
YES
159
63
Will the Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) data series on FRED be greater than 4.5% on January 1, 2027?
Jun 1, 6:58 AM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
62.99%
chance
5
68
Option
Votes
NO
YES
115
103
Will the Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) data series on FRED be greater than 4.5% on January 1, 2029?
Jun 1, 6:59 AM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
61.21%
chance
4
55
Option
Votes
NO
YES
134
91
Will the Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) data series on FRED be greater than 4.5% on January 1, 2028?
Jun 1, 6:59 AM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
50.99%
chance
1
1
Option
Votes
NO
YES
71
69
What Manifold question would be good to put on the (unofficial) LW Community Survey?
Nov 29, 11:09 PM
0
0
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