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Top stories

Noem Says 1.6 Million Undocumented Migrants Left U.S. as ICE Deportations Rise

US Domestic Policy

Noem Says 1.6 Million Undocumented Migrants Left U.S. as ICE Deportations Rise

Authors

12

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Current Population Survey

Unemployment rate for recent US college grads exceeds 25% before 2030?

May 30, 8:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.18%chance

87352

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5565

1084

Unemployment rate for recent US college grads exceeds 25% before 2035?

Feb 15, 11:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29%chance

183859

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2603

1623

Will US unemployment exceed 5% in 2026?

Jun 4, 4:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12%chance

13817

OptionVotes

YES

NO

271

37

Will the Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) data series on FRED be greater than 4.5% on January 1, 2027?

Jun 1, 6:58 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

23.41%chance

6168

OptionVotes

YES

NO

203

41

What will the US 90/10 hourly wage ratio be in 2027?

Feb 23, 2:14 AMJun 29, 3:59 AM

49.78%chance

3153

OptionProbability

YES

NO

113

85

What will the US 90/10 hourly wage ratio be in 2026?

Feb 23, 2:14 AMJun 29, 3:59 AM

51.54%chance

3150

OptionProbability

YES

NO

110

88

Will US translator jobs stay stable based on 2026 data (likely to be published Q1 2027)?

Aug 31, 3:27 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

60.66%chance

7136

OptionVotes

NO

YES

124

81

Will the Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) data series on FRED be greater than 4.5% on January 1, 2029?

Jun 1, 6:59 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

61.21%chance

455

OptionVotes

NO

YES

134

91

Will the Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) data series on FRED be greater than 4.5% on January 1, 2028?

Jun 1, 6:59 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50.99%chance

11

OptionVotes

NO

YES

71

69

What Manifold question would be good to put on the (unofficial) LW Community Survey?

Nov 29, 11:09 PM

00

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