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Top stories

Noem Says 1.6 Million Undocumented Migrants Left U.S. as ICE Deportations Rise

US Domestic Policy

Noem Says 1.6 Million Undocumented Migrants Left U.S. as ICE Deportations Rise

Authors

12

10 months ago

Prediction markets for Current Population Survey

Unemployment rate for recent US college grads exceeds 25% before 2030?

May 30, 8:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.18%chance

77331

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5565

1084

Unemployment rate for recent US college grads exceeds 25% before 2035?

Feb 15, 11:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29%chance

163670

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2603

1623

Will US unemployment exceed 5% in 2026?

Jun 4, 4:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.84%chance

9403

OptionVotes

YES

NO

125

80

What will the US 90/10 hourly wage ratio be in 2027?

Feb 23, 2:14 AMJun 29, 3:59 AM

22.3%chance

2110

OptionProbability

YES

NO

193

42

What will the US 90/10 hourly wage ratio be in 2026?

Feb 23, 2:14 AMJun 29, 3:59 AM

21.2%chance

2102

OptionProbability

YES

NO

199

40

Will the Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) data series on FRED be greater than 4.5% on January 1, 2027?

Jun 1, 6:58 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

62.99%chance

568

OptionVotes

NO

YES

115

103

Will the July 2026 U.S. U-6 unemployment rate be at least 8.0%?

Jun 15, 11:14 AMAug 7, 12:25 PM

37.2%chance

563

OptionVotes

YES

NO

140

65

Will the Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) data series on FRED be greater than 4.5% on January 1, 2029?

Jun 1, 6:59 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

61.21%chance

455

OptionVotes

NO

YES

134

91

Will the June 2026 U.S. U-6 unemployment rate be at least 8.0%?

Jun 7, 9:03 PMJul 2, 12:25 PM

64.04%chance

237

OptionVotes

NO

YES

113

92

Will the July 2026 U.S. labor force participation rate be at least 62.0%?

Jun 15, 10:16 AMAug 7, 12:25 PM

29.03%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

96

Will the Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) data series on FRED be greater than 4.5% on January 1, 2028?

Jun 1, 6:59 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50.99%chance

11

OptionVotes

NO

YES

71

69

What Manifold question would be good to put on the (unofficial) LW Community Survey?

Nov 29, 11:09 PM

00

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