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Prediction markets for Custom Assistants

Chat-style AI models will be a big part of 10% or more of workers's workflows in developed nations by 2027

Feb 2, 3:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.07%chance

1298015

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1846

1470

Will an available out-of-the-box LLM get >40% win rate on Slay the Spire A20 before August 2027?

Jul 31, 1:09 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

41.94%chance

172227

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1176

850

Will we learn that Anthropic lied to investors about operating profitable in Q2 2026 before 2028?

May 25, 8:51 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

10.94%chance

131653

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1759

146

2030 – 2. We interact with a wide range of AIs in our daily lives as naturally as we interact with other humans today

Mar 11, 12:07 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

88.83%chance

141045

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1519

876

Will an AI generate $1M in profit by the end of 2029?

Jul 22, 10:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.91%chance

7487

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1319

797

Will investment banks be impacted significantly due to the ease of creating custom software tools using AI by 2030?

Jun 25, 1:08 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

80.72%chance

7167

OptionVotes

NO

YES

286

120

Will investment banks be impacted significantly due to the ease of creating custom software tools using AI?

Jun 25, 12:58 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3105

OptionProbability

Yes, between 2026 to end of 2030

Yes, between 2031 to end of 2035

Yes, before end of 2025

Not before end of 2035

40

29

23

8

Global media opinion of Obama will improve from EOY 2023 to mid year 2027, according to OpenAI's best LLM

Dec 18, 9:57 PMJul 1, 5:59 AM

66.12%chance

435

OptionVotes

NO

YES

70

36

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