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Prediction markets for Custom Assistants

Chat-style AI models will be a big part of 10% or more of workers's workflows in developed nations by 2027

Feb 2, 3:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.07%chance

1298015

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1846

1470

When will the first mainstream article cover facts in Sokolowski, et. al. v. Silbert, et. al. Second Amended Complaint?

Jan 5, 3:11 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

87037

OptionProbability

Before 4/30/2026

Before 5/31/2026

Before 6/30/2026

Before 3/31/2026

Before 3/15/2026

Before 2/28/2026

Before 1/31/2026

Before 2/15/2026

Before 1/7/2026

Before 1/10/2026

Before 1/14/2026

Before 1/20/2026

9

9

9

8

6

5

1

1

0

0

0

0

2030 – 2. We interact with a wide range of AIs in our daily lives as naturally as we interact with other humans today

Mar 11, 12:07 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

88.83%chance

141045

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1519

876

Will investment banks be impacted significantly due to the ease of creating custom software tools using AI by 2030?

Jun 25, 1:08 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

80.72%chance

7167

OptionVotes

NO

YES

286

120

Will investment banks be impacted significantly due to the ease of creating custom software tools using AI?

Jun 25, 12:58 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3105

OptionProbability

Yes, between 2026 to end of 2030

Yes, between 2031 to end of 2035

Yes, before end of 2025

Not before end of 2035

40

29

23

8

ICE on ice?

Jan 30, 12:41 AMFeb 22, 11:59 PM

62.34%chance

589

OptionVotes

NO

YES

129

78

Global media opinion of Obama will improve from EOY 2023 to mid year 2027, according to OpenAI's best LLM

Dec 18, 9:57 PMJul 1, 5:59 AM

58.89%chance

325

OptionVotes

NO

YES

60

42

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