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Prediction markets for Custom Models

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Oct 19, 6:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.36%chance

12437063

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14097

6644

Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?

Jun 16, 6:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.63%chance

2733820

OptionVotes

YES

NO

24158

4139

By which years will AGI be released (Hendrycks definition >95%)?

Oct 16, 2:41 PMJan 2, 3:04 AM

1311937

OptionProbability

2035

2032

2030

2029

2028

2027

70

52

39

30

19

5

Chat-style AI models will be a big part of 10% or more of workers's workflows in developed nations by 2027

Feb 2, 3:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.07%chance

1298015

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1846

1470

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.75%chance

226494

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3137

320

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.13%chance

215978

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10497

2690

Will Anthropic's first image generation capability be based on an in-house image model?

Feb 3, 5:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53.41%chance

314631

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1356

296

Will Tesla deliver a low cost car before 2035?

May 27, 3:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

38.1%chance

242892

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1275

784

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

75.94%chance

321986

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1679

610

Meta sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Oct 30, 1:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.08%chance

241733

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1085

921

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

Oct 30, 12:17 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

52.33%chance

6247

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1115

1009

Will Hybrid Air Vehicles sell >0 Airlander 10 before 2029?

Feb 24, 10:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.22%chance

3102

OptionVotes

NO

YES

209

201

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