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Prediction markets for Custom Models

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Oct 19, 6:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

70.52%chance

9921705

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11686

10943

Will OpenAI have AI-related IP stolen before 2026?

Aug 1, 5:51 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM

21.64%chance

3919226

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19061

5209

Will Tesla offer autonomous vehicle delivery to customers' homes in 2025?

Apr 15, 10:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.42%chance

8116879

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1759

568

Will Anthropic have AI-related IP stolen before 2026?

Aug 1, 5:55 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM

18.72%chance

3916169

OptionVotes

YES

NO

20838

4780

Will Google Deepmind have AI-related IP stolen before 2026?

Aug 1, 5:58 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM

21.33%chance

2710339

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19404

4922

Who will make the default model for Cursor's agent at the end of 2025?

May 30, 5:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1410125

OptionProbability

Anthropic

Google

OpenAI

Cursor (custom model)

Other

DeepSeek

xAI

55

21

7

7

4

3

3

Chat-style AI models will be a big part of 10% or more of workers's workflows in developed nations by 2027

Feb 2, 3:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.07%chance

1298015

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1846

1470

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.01%chance

175392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9916

2845

Will OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google DeepMind have AI-related IP stolen before 2026?

Jun 21, 11:37 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

30%chance

404686

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1528

655

Will Tesla deliver a low cost car before 2035?

May 27, 3:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

44%chance

202658

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1128

886

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.89%chance

311936

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1629

626

Will Hybrid Air Vehicles sell >0 Airlander 10 before 2029?

Feb 24, 10:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.22%chance

3102

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1004

996

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