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Prediction markets for Customs

AWS stops offering Anthropic models to US customers via Amazon Bedrock before May 1, 2026

Feb 28, 3:56 PMApr 30, 11:59 PM

3.31%chance

2548862

OptionVotes

YES

NO

54089

1849

Will OpenAI design and manufacture a custom AI chip by 2030?

Mar 2, 11:35 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

93%chance

375498

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3656

410

Will Charles Schwab customers have access to a prediction market on the 2028 US presidential election?

Jan 31, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

56.04%chance

224418

OptionVotes

NO

YES

9992

9986

xAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Sep 28, 5:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.14%chance

112824

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1017

983

OpenAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Nov 7, 7:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.72%chance

192798

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2886

346

Will most Apple customers use a visionOS interface by 2030?

Feb 4, 3:49 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10.46%chance

331504

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1639

843

Will AI customer phone lines be normal by 2027?

Jun 14, 8:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86.13%chance

371404

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1130

931

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.09%chance

151045

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1393

720

Meta sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Oct 30, 1:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.22%chance

14858

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1271

787

Will AI customer phone lines be normal by 2029?

Jun 13, 11:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

85.03%chance

17652

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1279

926

By 2029, AI can provide phone banking services as well as human operators, without annoying customers more than humans?

Jan 5, 10:44 AMJan 12, 8:00 AM

58.96%chance

12268

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1023

980

Will "Customer Satisfaction Opportunities" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Mar 18, 12:00 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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