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Prediction markets for Cyber

Size of largest company to fail due to cyber attacks by EoY 2027?

Aug 21, 2:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

133193

OptionProbability

$100M - <$10B

< $100M

$10B - < $100B

$100B+

61

19

11

9

SOAI#4: A deepfake/agent-driven cyber attack triggers the first NATO/UN emergency debate on AI security

Oct 9, 11:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.77%chance

312069

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1743

574

Will OpenAI be ordered to pay fines in California for releasing Codex 5.3 without sufficient cyber safeguards?

Feb 13, 5:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.21%chance

151661

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2530

620

Will a cyber attack by a top 10 GDP nation exposing mass private civilian data occur before 2028?

Mar 15, 4:51 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

77.38%chance

231145

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1801

590

Will OpenAI de-deploy GPT-5.5 before 2027 for safety, security, cyber-risk, or other threat-related reasons?

May 4, 6:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1%chance

8940

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

10

Will an OSS project stop taking donations due to the Cyber Resilience Act?

Jul 18, 4:36 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

29.95%chance

7269

OptionVotes

YES

NO

197

87

Will "Is Mythos good at cyber because it kept hacki..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jul 27, 7:41 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

19.18%chance

4262

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1054

723

Stephen Casper: by EOY2026, a system with comparable cyber capabilities to Mythos will be widely available?

Apr 10, 9:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.43%chance

5247

OptionVotes

NO

YES

307

33

In which 2026 month will Firefox hit Peak Cyber?

May 8, 2:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12224

OptionProbability

April 2026

May 2026

July 2026

June 2026

August 2026

September 2026

October 2026

November 2026

December 2026

37

37

8

3

3

3

3

3

3

Will a United States Cyber Force or Cyber Corp stand up before February 1, 2029?

Feb 2, 2:17 AMFeb 2, 5:59 AM

54.66%chance

8195

OptionVotes

YES

NO

197

163

Will there be a Global Cyber Pandemic or Warfare by 2030?

Nov 11, 11:33 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

61%chance

476

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

94

Conditional on a cyber incident causing $15B+ in US economic damage, what will be the primary target?

Aug 12, 12:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18

OptionProbability

critical utilities (electric grid, water, oil/gas pipelines)

internet/telecom

financial system

other (includes transportation, supply chain, healthcare, manufacturing)

37

21

21

21

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