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Prediction markets for Cyber

SOAI#4: A deepfake/agent-driven cyber attack triggers the first NATO/UN emergency debate on AI security

Oct 9, 11:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26.51%chance

302035

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1665

601

Will OpenAI be ordered to pay fines in California for releasing Codex 5.3 without sufficient cyber safeguards?

Feb 13, 5:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.21%chance

151661

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2530

620

How many critical severity cyber vulnerabilities will be found in December 2026?

Jun 10, 8:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41209

OptionProbability

≥100

≥200

≥300

≥400

≥500

≥750

≥1000

≥1500

≥2000

≥3000

≥5000

95

86

76

72

66

50

41

37

26

14

10

Will a cyber attack by a top 10 GDP nation exposing mass private civilian data occur before 2028?

Mar 15, 4:51 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

77.38%chance

231145

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1801

590

Will an OSS project stop taking donations due to the Cyber Resilience Act?

Jul 18, 4:36 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

29.95%chance

7269

OptionVotes

YES

NO

197

87

Stephen Casper: by EOY2026, a system with comparable cyber capabilities to Mythos will be widely available?

Apr 10, 9:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.43%chance

5247

OptionVotes

NO

YES

307

33

Will OpenAI de-deploy GPT-5.5 before 2027 for safety, security, cyber-risk, or other threat-related reasons?

May 4, 6:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.96%chance

5240

OptionVotes

YES

NO

340

29

Will a company retract an OSS project due to the Cyber Resilience Act?

Jul 18, 4:59 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

28.03%chance

6233

OptionVotes

YES

NO

178

64

In which 2026 month will Firefox hit Peak Cyber?

May 8, 2:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12211

OptionProbability

April 2026

May 2026

June 2026

July 2026

August 2026

September 2026

October 2026

November 2026

December 2026

44

36

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

Will a United States Cyber Force or Cyber Corp stand up before February 1, 2029?

Feb 2, 2:17 AMFeb 2, 5:59 AM

54.66%chance

8195

OptionVotes

YES

NO

197

163

Will Anthropic open applications for its Cyber Verification Program before July 1, 2026?

Apr 15, 9:13 AMJul 2, 4:30 AM

60.67%chance

4185

OptionVotes

NO

YES

109

94

Will a cyber attack against self driving vehicles intentionally kill 100+ people in a day before end of 2027?

Sep 11, 11:59 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

16.68%chance

896

OptionVotes

YES

NO

280

155

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