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Prediction markets for Cyber

SOAI#4: A deepfake/agent-driven cyber attack triggers the first NATO/UN emergency debate on AI security

Oct 9, 11:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.99%chance

302059

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1733

577

How many critical severity cyber vulnerabilities will be found in December 2026?

Jun 10, 8:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41744

OptionProbability

≥100

≥200

≥300

≥400

≥500

≥750

≥1000

≥1500

≥2000

≥3000

≥5000

99

86

76

72

66

50

41

37

26

14

10

Will OpenAI be ordered to pay fines in California for releasing Codex 5.3 without sufficient cyber safeguards?

Feb 13, 5:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.21%chance

151661

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2530

620

Will a cyber attack by a top 10 GDP nation exposing mass private civilian data occur before 2028?

Mar 15, 4:51 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

77.38%chance

231145

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1801

590

Will an OSS project stop taking donations due to the Cyber Resilience Act?

Jul 18, 4:36 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

29.95%chance

7269

OptionVotes

YES

NO

197

87

Stephen Casper: by EOY2026, a system with comparable cyber capabilities to Mythos will be widely available?

Apr 10, 9:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.43%chance

5247

OptionVotes

NO

YES

307

33

Will a company retract an OSS project due to the Cyber Resilience Act?

Jul 18, 4:59 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

28.03%chance

6233

OptionVotes

YES

NO

178

64

Will a United States Cyber Force or Cyber Corp stand up before February 1, 2029?

Feb 2, 2:17 AMFeb 2, 5:59 AM

54.66%chance

8195

OptionVotes

YES

NO

197

163

Will "Is Mythos good at cyber because it kept hacki..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jul 27, 7:41 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

22%chance

3147

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1080

623

Will OpenAI broadly release a dedicated Cyber model to Trusted Access users by Sep 30, 2026?

May 14, 8:16 AMOct 1, 7:00 AM

67.61%chance

7112

OptionVotes

NO

YES

152

60

Will a cyber attack against self driving vehicles intentionally kill 100+ people in a day before end of 2027?

Sep 11, 11:59 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

16.68%chance

896

OptionVotes

YES

NO

280

155

Will there be a Global Cyber Pandemic or Warfare by 2030?

Nov 11, 11:33 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

61%chance

476

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

94

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