OptionVotes
YES
NO
3718
269
OptionProbability
Will someone drive across the country in FSD with no human input of any kind by mid 2026
Will I still have grok in my car, through mid 2026
Will I will be able to get my Tesla model Y 2023 to automatically back out of my driveway to the side of the road by mid 2026 (without me in it)
Will I be able to drop my car at the entrance to a garage and have it park by mid 2026 (possibly out of sight lines) (without me in it)
I'll see an Optimus or other Tesla robot in San Mateo CA in public not at the dealership by mid 2028
US Customer takes delivery of Cybercab with no steering wheel by end of 2026
Will I be able to use a non xAi model in the car, via same mechanism as grok, by mid 2026
Will there be any conditions where I'm able to sleep in my 2023 Model Y (FSD currently 14.2.1) while it drives, on a public road by mid 2026?
Max configurable speed for self driving will be above 85 by mid 2025
Tesla robotaxi rideable in SF by the public by mid 2025
I'll be able to call a Waymo to my house in San Mateo by mid 2025
I'll be able to call a fsd Tesla vehicle to my house in San Mateo by mid 2025
100
96
60
55
29
20
16
3
0
Optimus Gen 3 revealed by June 30, 2026
Grok Imagine #1 on Artificial Analysis video leaderboard end of March
Elon Musk publicly calls for pausing advanced AI development or joins a major AI safety treaty by December 31, 2026
Starship V3 reaches orbit by May 1, 2026
Neuralink implants surpass 1,000 humans by December 31, 2026
xAI releases Grok 4.5 or Grok 5 by March 14, 2026
Elon Musk visits China by March 14, 2026
Elon Musk visits India by March 14, 2026
Elon Musk visits Norway by March 13, 2026
Starship V3 reaches orbit by March 13, 2026
Grok 4.2 reaches No.1 on LMArena Text leaderboard by March 13, 2026
Optimus Gen 3 available for public purchase before March 13, 2026
Cybercab available for public purchase before March 13 2026
68
21
19
8
Optimus robots deployed in Tesla factories (>10 units) by Dec 31, 2026
Cybercab production exceeds 500/month by Sep 30, 2026
Marques Brownlee shaves his head on camera by December 31, 2026
Cortex 2 AI cluster operational by August 1, 2026
Unsupervised FSD releases to non-employees in US by June 30, 2026
Tesla merges with SpaceX by December 31, 2026
Terafab fabricates at least one chip in 2026
TSLA stock closes above $500 before April 1, 2026
71
50
47
44
11
1175
851