Cybersecurity News

YES

NO

YES

Nothing horrible happens

Internal fraud/embezzlement

Bank or financial partner failure

Cybersecurity breach/hack

Regulatory crackdown with asset seizure

No sector shows “wide adoption” by 31 Dec 2032

Finance (portfolio optimization, risk, pricing)

Pharma / chemistry (drug or material discovery)

Cybersecurity / cryptography

Logistics / mobility (routing, supply chain, EV fleets)

Exists before start of 2035

Exists before start of 2030

Is a transformer according to current definition in this market https://manifold.markets/Robincvgr/will-the-first-agi-be-a-transformer

Any AI company deploys 1,000 self-sufficient AIs (using their own models) at most 6 months after self-sufficiency is achieved

Is judged to have caused a minor cybersecurity incident at least as bad as the wiki messageboard before start of 2029

Exists before start of 2028

conway.tech or web4.ai buys from/sells to/hosts at least some actually-self-sufficient AI

Is judged to have caused a major cybersecurity incident at least as bad as the huggingface hack before start of 2029

Makes money mostly legally for the first 2 months (even accounting for illegal agents probably being hidden)

Initially, Claude powers more agents than GPT or Gemini do

A frontier AI company has already broken even BEFORE self-sufficiency is achieved

Sends $1,000 to a useless human middleman at most 6 months after self-sufficiency is achieved

NO

NO

NO

NO

YES

YES