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Prediction markets for Cybersecurity

Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2027?

Feb 24, 10:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.57%chance

152183

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1907

524

Will quantum computing break cybersecurity by 2030?

Dec 30, 10:14 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

17.99%chance

332083

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1194

1117

Will OpenAI be ordered to pay fines in California for releasing Codex 5.3 without sufficient cyber safeguards?

Feb 13, 5:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.33%chance

141641

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2510

622

Will Q-Day happen in 2025 or 2026? When all of our encryption is broken.

Aug 6, 6:38 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

7.58%chance

141071

OptionVotes

YES

NO

349

29

Will something horrible happen to Kalshi deposits by 2030?

Mar 21, 2:55 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

81068

OptionProbability

Nothing horrible happens

Internal fraud/embezzlement

Bank or financial partner failure

Cybersecurity breach/hack

Regulatory crackdown with asset seizure

Other

84

3

3

3

3

3

Which sector will be the first to widely adopt quantum computing for production workloads?

Jan 7, 5:45 AMJan 7, 5:41 AM

10915

OptionProbability

No sector shows “wide adoption” by 31 Dec 2032

Finance (portfolio optimization, risk, pricing)

Pharma / chemistry (drug or material discovery)

Logistics / mobility (routing, supply chain, EV fleets)

Cybersecurity / cryptography

Government / defence

56

15

12

6

6

6

Will GPT-5.3-Codex (or successor) independently fix a critical security vulnerability in its own code by July 1, 2026?

Feb 8, 4:02 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

10%chance

5530

OptionVotes

YES

NO

300

33

Will it become public that Monero has been compromised currently before 2030?

Jun 27, 1:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.08%chance

7265

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1249

801

Will credible evidence emerge before 2027 that Meta can access the content of WhatsApp messages despite end-to-end encry

Jan 27, 10:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11%chance

8250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

284

35

Will cybersecurity be among the fastest growing fields through 2030?

May 8, 6:03 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

66%chance

10206

OptionVotes

NO

YES

192

122

Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2030?

Jun 1, 4:46 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

80.41%chance

9192

OptionVotes

NO

YES

154

110

By 2028, will there be a public instance of an AI cybersecurity system autonomously replicating itself?

Jun 29, 5:55 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

35.98%chance

14110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1006

979

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