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Prediction markets for Daily Assistant

Will over 50% of households in any developed country use an AI assistant for daily decision-making by the end of 2030?

Jan 8, 6:16 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

55%chance

352427

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1025

966

Will LLMs estimate a probability over 40% that the origin of COVID was a lab leak in 2034?

May 27, 8:49 PMMay 2, 6:59 AM

37.02%chance

331497

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1174

749

Will LLMs estimate a probability over 60% that the origin of COVID was a lab leak in 2034?

May 27, 11:08 PMMay 2, 6:59 AM

38.91%chance

151075

OptionVotes

YES

NO

143

119

2030 – 2. We interact with a wide range of AIs in our daily lives as naturally as we interact with other humans today

Mar 11, 12:07 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

88.83%chance

141045

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1519

876

Will a fully AI-generated song reach Billboard Top 10 by 2027?

Dec 18, 3:20 AMJan 30, 3:59 PM

6240

OptionProbability

Jan-Jun 2027

Jul-Dec 2027

Jul-Dec 2026

Jan-Jun 2026

41

40

10

9

Daily LLM assistant personal usage exceeds 2 hours for >10% of users on any platform by end-2026?

Sep 23, 2:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.09%chance

3152

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1043

959

Who will make the most popular consumer AI device in 2026?

Mar 9, 6:14 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

1196

OptionProbability

Apple

Meta

Google

OpenAI

Samsung

Other

Rabbit

Snap

Microsoft

Amazon

Humane

23

17

11

9

7

7

6

5

5

5

4

Global media opinion of Obama will improve from EOY 2023 to mid year 2027, according to OpenAI's best LLM

Dec 18, 9:57 PMJul 1, 5:59 AM

66.12%chance

435

OptionVotes

NO

YES

70

36

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