Daily Range News

Javier Milei - Argentina's president - First Term Mega-market

Dec 18, 5:45 PMDec 17, 6:59 AM

15976038

OptionProbability

He comes to the US and meets the US president in the white house and a picture is released

He leaves Argentina during his first term

He travels to Chile during his first term

He travels to Brazil during his first term

He is photographed with Elon Musk

A photo of him with Trump is released

A photo of Milei with Biden is released

His sister Karina holds an official public governmental position

Will he publicly shake hands with Lula?

Will Elon Musk post Milei's picture, real or meme form, as long as he's clearly identifiable?

Heritage.org economic freedom score will be at or above the world average [Argentina 51.0, world 59.3 in 2023]

Argentina will be at 63rd or better place in the good country index [63rd in 2023]

Argentina will have improved its "corruption perceptions index" ranking [96th]; their score in 2023 was 38, higher score is better

His salary as president is legislatively raised or lowered

Heritage.org economic freedom score will be 60 or above [51 in 2023]

Argentina will be at or better than its 2023 US news "best country" rating of 39

According to amnesty international, the poverty rate will go down [36.5% in 2022]

Annualized inflation rate relative to 2023 will be <30%

He wins reelection to a 2nd term

There are serious news reports that he is discussing working with Elon Musk on a major project such as a new city, or a Tesla factory, or a rocket base, etc.

A sitting US President visits Argentina and is photographed with him

Will Pope Francis or a new Pope visit?

The Economist data will list GDP person as above 16k USD [13700 in 2023]

LLM Q2: Will OpenAI's top public LLM at end of term, when asked from the POV of various international media outlets, what average rating will they give him?

The Economist data will list GDP person as above 16000 USD [13700 in 2023]

Argentina will have improved its "Sustainable Development Report" of 51st place

LLM Q1: Will OpenAI's top public LLM at end of his term rate his performance at >50%?

He travels to Bolivia

Victoria Villarruel leaves government and does not hold the office of vice president before end of term

Argentina will finish in the top 4 in the 2026 world cup

Milei is revealed to not really be a Vegan (or just stops being Vegan)

He sells land to a non-argentinian individual or corporation with some promises of a level of sovereignty above what is normal

He leads Argentina to significantly begin cooperation with SpaceX

Argentina's population increases by more than 1%/year annualized til end of first term [historically, there has been approx 0.6% annual increase in the last 4 years]

He goes incommunicado for at least a week

Will the organ trade be legalized? (significantly legalized compared to the rest of S.America suffices)

Elon says the phrase or something similar, as a slogan or statement, or wears something with "VVLC", "Vive la libertad carajo" in english or spanish

He marries during his first term

He significantly changes his hairstyle during his first term

US Military gains any kind of base for at least 10 active duty military personnel within Argentina

He is impeached or removed in a process which is retroactively considered legal for at least a week

There is an assassination attempt resulting in shots fired

He successfully mediates the border dispute with Chile and completely solves it

Argentina will finish in the top 2 in the 2026 world cup

Will he ever be TIME person of the year?

Argentina's population ever decreases year over year during the first term

He leaves office early from his first term, i.e. not completing the usual 4 years

He goes out of office for physical health-related reasons [independent health-related only; assassination, disappearance, quitting, or psychological reasons don't count]

He successfully dollarizes Argentina [i.e. most people use dollars most of the time]

Argentina will win the 2026 world cup

The official borders of Argentina change during his term of office

Argentina accepts some kind of Cryptocurrency for payment of taxes or gov't fees

The Argentine peso will have been officially deprecated and not in legal use

He is jailed, emprisoned, or held in state control during what was his original planned term of office

He travels to Russia during his first term

He changes the law such that he retains power longer than the usual 4 years without a new election

He is in a serious car or motorcycle crash

Will he abolish the central bank of Argentina?

He has a child during his first term

He is excommunicated by the catholic church

Argentina will declare war

He gets banned from Twitter [even momentarily]

He publicly resigns [whether real or coerced]

He is in a plane (or helicopter) crash

He passes away during his first term before completion

There is a military action in the Falklands/Malvinas which results in the death of at least 2 soldiers from any side

Argentina effectively controls the Falklands/Malvinas or part of them, for at least a week

He officially converts to Judaism

Will Argentina join BRICS?

Will at any time, the US have a travel advisory against Argentina at level 3 or 4 or higher? (level 1 now)

100

Will Bitcoin go below $30,000 before reaching a new all time high?

Jan 30, 2:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.72%chance

127410

OptionVotes

YES

1656

604

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

71.93%chance

163414

OptionVotes

YES

1009

979

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15.88%chance

233212

OptionVotes

YES

1925

695

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.96%chance

123209

OptionVotes

YES

6132

3376

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

YES

1928

630

2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.97%chance

251329

OptionVotes

YES

1017

852

2030 – 2. We interact with a wide range of AIs in our daily lives as naturally as we interact with other humans today

Mar 11, 12:07 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

88.83%chance

141045

OptionVotes

YES

1519

876

Which of these Forbes predictions will hold up?

Mar 13, 5:23 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

18527

OptionProbability

Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

We will interact with a wide range of AIs in our daily lives as naturally as we interact with other humans today.

AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

“Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.

Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower than it is today. Intel’s will be meaningfully higher than it is today.

Which will happen first; the Dow Jones Industrial Average will go: under 45000 or over 50000.

Mar 6, 4:21 PMDec 31, 4:16 PM

77.07%chance

2120

OptionVotes

YES

183

Do skinless sardines contain 40% less arsenic?

May 10, 3:04 AMDec 31, 6:00 PM

32.38%chance

657

OptionVotes

YES

184

128

Global media opinion of Obama will improve from EOY 2023 to mid year 2027, according to OpenAI's best LLM

Dec 18, 9:57 PMJul 1, 5:59 AM

66.12%chance

435

OptionVotes

YES

Daily Range News

Prediction markets for Daily Range

Prediction markets for Daily Range

Prediction markets for Daily Range

Javier Milei - Argentina's president - First Term Mega-market

Will Bitcoin go below $30,000 before reaching a new all time high?

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.

2030 – 2. We interact with a wide range of AIs in our daily lives as naturally as we interact with other humans today

Which of these Forbes predictions will hold up?

Which will happen first; the Dow Jones Industrial Average will go: under 45000 or over 50000.

Do skinless sardines contain 40% less arsenic?

Global media opinion of Obama will improve from EOY 2023 to mid year 2027, according to OpenAI's best LLM

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