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Prediction markets for Dark Matter

What is dark matter?

Sep 1, 3:10 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

538498

OptionProbability

Other

WIMPs

Sterile neutrinos

Primordial black holes

Axions

MOND

GR effects that current theoretical models don't accurately account for - no new physics required

Dark photons

Supersymmetric particles

20

17

16

14

9

9

7

5

3

Does dark matter exist?

May 1, 4:37 PMMay 8, 8:59 PM

80.36%chance

507156

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1425

840

Is volcanism caused by dark matter?

Dec 10, 10:10 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

9.57%chance

144394

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1180

951

Leading dark matter explanation by January 2045

Feb 17, 1:55 AMJan 2, 1:00 AM

224289

OptionProbability

Primordial Black Holes

Any WIMPs or Axions not listed in other answers

No Clear Leading Theory

Other

Combination of particle types

Modified Gravity Theories

Matter outside of our 3D space

Second Flavor Hydrogen Atoms

Gravitons

MACHOS

27

22

15

15

6

5

5

3

1

1

Will a human walk on Mars before a Nobel Prize is awarded for a discovery relating to dark matter?

Jun 16, 10:13 PMJan 1, 7:01 AM

67.74%chance

362720

OptionVotes

NO

YES

977

952

If a mundane explanation for the phenomena thought to be due to dark matter is found, what will it be?

Apr 20, 8:18 PMApr 27, 9:59 PM

372332

OptionProbability

Primordial asteroid sized black holes

Axions

Other

Unexpected GR solutions

Weird effects in N-body dynamics

Something related to Shape Dynamics

Something related to stellar physics

Large scale electromagnetic fields

Instrumental errors in observations

44

28

27

26

26

17

16

12

6

Will Dark Matter still be real at the end of 2028?

Mar 21, 10:36 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

84.74%chance

281575

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1015

951

Will the nature of dark matter be known by 2030?

Jan 2, 9:00 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

18.05%chance

241211

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1032

976

Which is true of the Dark Matter effect and the Dark Energy effect.

Aug 7, 7:23 AMNov 3, 2:59 PM

171140

OptionProbability

Different Sources

Same Source

81

19

Dark matter used as reaction mass by spacecraft before 2100

Nov 17, 7:29 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.51%chance

201005

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1262

948

What percentage of dark matter is baryonic?

Oct 30, 4:44 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

30.05%chance

12569

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1027

973

Are dark matter and dark energy other universes?

Nov 8, 8:04 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

17.27%chance

14298

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1017

976

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