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Prediction markets for Data Center

Earliest date we will see credible claims that a new space data center is cheaper than its terrestrial counterpart?

Feb 5, 7:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

118634

OptionProbability

>= 2046

2028-2029

2030-2031

2032-2033

2034-2035

2036-2037

2038-2039

2040-2041

2027

2042-2043

2044-2045

2026

13

10

10

9

9

9

9

8

7

7

6

4

Will there be a functional ≥100MW data center in space before 2031?

Dec 11, 5:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35%chance

225135

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1365

735

Will there be an AI data center powered by new nuclear power by 2030?

Sep 20, 2:36 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.12%chance

333974

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1692

591

Will Helion provide nuclear fusion power to a data center before end of 2028?

Jun 21, 10:56 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

17.82%chance

193806

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2148

466

Will Microsoft power its data center with SMR(Small Modular Reactor) by 2030?

Sep 26, 6:44 AMJan 1, 2:59 PM

36.36%chance

382620

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1318

1115

Will Microsoft have at least one data center (partially) powered by a self-operated fission reactor before 2030?

Dec 15, 9:57 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

27.74%chance

221693

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1726

368

Is Trump's ballroom project an underground data center?

Dec 19, 11:57 PMJan 1, 11:47 PM

14.27%chance

141531

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1453

1004

Will any data center be attacked to oppose AI development by 2030?

Jun 26, 6:46 AMJan 3, 7:59 AM

44.43%chance

18840

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1118

894

Will U.S. data center electricity consumption exceed 10% of total U.S. power demand by end of 2030?

Feb 12, 3:02 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.74%chance

7714

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1181

846

Will Russia announce completion of an AI data center with >10,000 AI accelerators (GPUs/TPUs) before 2027?

Oct 29, 1:31 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

35.15%chance

3500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1358

736

Will any Amazon Web Services data center be nationalized by any country by 2030?

Mar 5, 11:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

39.46%chance

17245

OptionVotes

YES

NO

996

995

Will at least three more U.S. states impose special electricity tariffs on data centers before Jan 1, 2028?

Feb 12, 5:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.41%chance

2159

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1041

851

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