Data Cloud News

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Mar 7, 1:33 AMMar 14, 1:28 AM

19947448

OptionProbability

YES - The AI, without being prompted to, took actions to breach its sandbox, including to gain crypto and an external connection

NO - The authors are wrong/lying and there was no such hack

NO - The servers were hacked by an outside party, perhaps via prompt injection

NO - An employee (or other insider) was crypto-mining and made it look like the LLM

Will Anthropic models still be hosted on at least one of AWS, GCP, or Azure at expiry

Feb 28, 12:08 AMAug 31, 10:59 PM

98.97%chance

3119748

OptionVotes

YES

10655

120

OpenAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Nov 7, 7:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.83%chance

202800

OptionVotes

YES

2870

348

AI system achieves full technological and economic autonomy before 2028?

Sep 20, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.52%chance

61498

OptionVotes

YES

1440

694

Meta sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Oct 30, 1:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.09%chance

231483

OptionVotes

YES

1197

835

Will an AI generate $1M in profit by the end of 2029?

Jul 22, 10:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.91%chance

7487

OptionVotes

YES

1319

797

Will data centers consume more than 10% of US electricity usage by EOY 2028?

May 28, 4:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65%chance

10156

OptionVotes

YES

136

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2028?

Jun 1, 6:50 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

85.2%chance

5137

OptionVotes

YES

208

Will the US attack European AI/compute providers before 2035?

Jun 21, 2:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23%chance

3112

OptionVotes

YES

183

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^27 FLOP in China before 2030?

Jun 1, 6:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

79.39%chance

782

OptionVotes

YES

137

Will CRWV270115C00140000 expire in-the-money?

Jan 20, 3:03 PMJan 15, 4:00 PM

40.47%chance

274

OptionVotes

YES

121

A use case where a typical enterprise would need to have data in the cloud to fully enjoy the benefits of AI

Nov 29, 4:25 AM

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Prediction markets for Data Cloud

Prediction markets for Data Cloud

Prediction markets for Data Cloud

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Will Anthropic models still be hosted on at least one of AWS, GCP, or Azure at expiry

OpenAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

AI system achieves full technological and economic autonomy before 2028?

Meta sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Will an AI generate $1M in profit by the end of 2029?

Will data centers consume more than 10% of US electricity usage by EOY 2028?

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2028?

Will the US attack European AI/compute providers before 2035?

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^27 FLOP in China before 2030?

Will CRWV270115C00140000 expire in-the-money?

A use case where a typical enterprise would need to have data in the cloud to fully enjoy the benefits of AI

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