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Prediction markets for Data Commons

Will it be common for non-programmers to create small scripts using AI in their everyday work or life? By 2033

Mar 21, 4:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.99%chance

1167407

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1826

1079

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.07%chance

347402

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1458

688

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.64%chance

226982

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3477

288

Will it be common for non-programmers to create small scripts using AI in their everyday work or life? By 2027

Aug 17, 2:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.63%chance

665239

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1991

474

Will GiveWell fund HPV vaccination to prevent cervical cancer by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.61%chance

235041

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5459

2563

Will quantum computing break cybersecurity by 2030?

Dec 30, 10:14 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

17.99%chance

332083

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1194

1117

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

72.71%chance

332036

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1534

660

Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2030?

Jun 2, 5:05 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

50.21%chance

171805

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1004

996

Is it possible to "hack" an average human into performing arbitrary behaviors?

Dec 25, 12:18 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

35.54%chance

17971

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1118

699

Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2032?

May 20, 5:26 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

50.41%chance

12820

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1008

992

What common will have the highest GIH WR for Reality Fracture according to 17Lands data on November 9, 2026?

Oct 2, 7:59 PMNov 9, 3:00 PM

4606

OptionProbability

Other

Mindseeker Oculus

Theoretical Necromancer

52

47

1

Will US automotive deaths drop below 30,000/yr by the end of 2029?

Mar 4, 12:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.6%chance

15411

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1021

948

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