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Prediction markets for Data Commons

Will it be common for non-programmers to create small scripts using AI in their everyday work or life? By 2033

Mar 21, 4:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.15%chance

1147307

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1903

957

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.64%chance

226982

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3477

288

Will GiveWell fund HPV vaccination to prevent cervical cancer by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.87%chance

234991

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5409

2578

Will it be common for non-programmers to create small scripts using AI in their everyday work or life? By 2027

Aug 17, 2:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.34%chance

634617

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1837

515

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.89%chance

253805

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1088

922

Will quantum computing break cybersecurity by 2030?

Dec 30, 10:14 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

17.99%chance

332083

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1194

1117

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.89%chance

311936

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1629

626

Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2030?

Jun 2, 5:05 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

51.74%chance

161655

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1035

966

Is it possible to "hack" an average human into performing arbitrary behaviors?

Dec 25, 12:18 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

35.54%chance

17971

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1118

699

Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2032?

May 20, 5:26 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

51.41%chance

11660

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1029

972

Will US automotive deaths drop below 30,000/yr by the end of 2029?

Mar 4, 12:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.6%chance

15411

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1021

948

Number of H100 equivalent chips (by Flops) Huawei will make in year 2026

May 2, 4:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Below 100,000

100,000 - 499,999

500,000 - 999,999

1,000,000 - 2,499,999

2,500,000 - 4,999,999

5,000,000 - 9,999,999

10,000,000+

14

14

14

14

14

14

14

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