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Prediction markets for Data Explorer

🇺🇸 If Trump wins, will the US electoral democracy index fall below 0.80 by 2025?

Mar 11, 3:59 PMNov 2, 4:59 AM

78.77%chance

258312

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1392

852

Will the inflation rate in the US reach 6% between the 2024 and 2028 presidential elections?

Feb 21, 1:25 AMNov 7, 4:59 AM

30.35%chance

333266

OptionVotes

NO

YES

990

979

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.07%chance

193036

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3171

316

OpenAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Nov 7, 7:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.22%chance

152431

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2680

373

Will the inflation rate in the US reach 6% before it reaches 0%?

Feb 19, 2:10 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

76.55%chance

532215

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1470

776

Will 60% of Americans approve abortion "for any reason" before 2030?

Nov 12, 7:00 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

37.68%chance

181002

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1489

351

Will blockchain technology be used for storing at least 10% of global GDP by 2027?

Nov 15, 1:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30%chance

10916

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1528

655

Meta sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Oct 30, 1:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.22%chance

14858

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1271

787

Between 2023 and 2030, will revenue from deep learning double every two years?

Aug 8, 5:57 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

24.57%chance

3280

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4054

3761

Will connectomics data generation costs drop below $1 million per cubic millimeter by 2027?

Jul 3, 6:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.2%chance

4116

OptionVotes

YES

NO

112

89

Will more than 5% of 2024 Title IV institutions close by EOY 2029?

Oct 5, 5:59 AMSep 2, 3:59 AM

80%chance

1100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

205

55

Will there be a psychedelics + closed-loop TMS paper by EOY2028?

Nov 11, 11:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

56.48%chance

451

OptionVotes

NO

YES

114

88

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