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[MANA BOUNTY + USD BOUNTY] Will Manifold help me land a role I'm happy with by EOY 2025?

Jul 5, 12:41 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

20.57%chance

3612418

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19650

5089

Will Figure AI be found to be fraudulent by 2026?

May 18, 6:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69%chance

213692

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1492

670

Will an AI Minecraft Agent defeat the Ender Dragon before 2026?

Jan 21, 3:07 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

32.17%chance

212448

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1452

689

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.89%chance

311936

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1629

626

Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2030?

Jun 2, 5:05 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

51.74%chance

161655

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1035

966

Zohran Mamdani wins NYC Mayoral general election mandate (50%)?

Jul 12, 2:59 PMNov 4, 11:59 PM

49.73%chance

15850

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1005

995

Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2035?

May 17, 1:38 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

63.73%chance

9665

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1326

754

Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2032?

May 20, 5:26 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

49.93%chance

9570

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1001

999

Will LLMs' loss function achieve the level of entropy of human text by the end of 2030?

Jun 8, 9:10 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

60.92%chance

11570

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1249

801

Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2031?

May 21, 10:16 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

54.39%chance

6564

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1092

916

Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2033?

May 18, 12:47 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

56.27%chance

9365

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1134

882

Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2034?

May 17, 10:03 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

62.71%chance

6305

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1297

771

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