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Top stories

Chainlink Supplies Real-Time U.S. Equities Data Onchain; Xitadel Joins Build, Targets $100B Crypto Fixed Income Market

Chainlink Supplies Real-Time U.S. Equities Data Onchain; Xitadel Joins Build, Targets $100B Crypto Fixed Income Market

Authors

4

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Data Streams

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.55%chance

8250361

OptionVotes

YES

NO

28550

2982

Will CBMM Araxá high-purity Nb2O5 nameplate capacity exceed 500 tpa on December 31, 2026?

Mar 30, 9:46 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM

79.28%chance

42349

OptionVotes

NO

YES

160

78

Will CBMM Araxá high-purity Nb2O5 nameplate capacity exceed 1000 tpa on December 31, 2026?

Mar 30, 9:46 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM

80.22%chance

31106

OptionVotes

NO

YES

206

34

Is it possible to "hack" an average human into performing arbitrary behaviors?

Dec 25, 12:18 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

35.54%chance

17971

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1118

699

In two years time AI pornography will generate twice as much money as regular pornography.

Mar 13, 4:09 AMMar 13, 4:08 AM

4.69%chance

23716

OptionVotes

YES

NO

451

22

Which happens first? [Ads in AI][OpenAI vs Anthropic]

Feb 9, 7:33 PMFeb 10, 5:59 AM

7302

OptionProbability

OpenAI significantly expands the scope of Ads in ChatGPT

OpenAI removes ads in ChatGPT

Anthropic adds Ads in one of their primary AI apps (currently Claude)

88

8

4

Will Kendrick Lamar have a Billboard number 1 single in 2026?

Jan 5, 4:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.24%chance

5264

OptionVotes

YES

NO

418

101

Will a fully AI-generated song reach Billboard Top 10 by 2027?

Dec 18, 3:20 AMJan 30, 3:59 PM

6240

OptionProbability

Jan-Jun 2027

Jul-Dec 2027

Jul-Dec 2026

Jan-Jun 2026

41

40

10

9

Will CBMM Araxá high-purity Nb2O5 nameplate capacity exceed 10000 tpa on December 31, 2026?

Mar 30, 9:47 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM

36.6%chance

7110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

107

4

Will Model Intelligence diverge from consumer market share?

Apr 14, 12:44 AMApr 14, 12:30 AM

665

OptionProbability

Yes

N/A (unclear)

No

60

23

17

Successful Mercury landing till 2040?

Apr 22, 7:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.15%chance

342

OptionVotes

YES

NO

172

100

Will CBMM Araxá high-purity Nb2O5 nameplate capacity exceed 5000 tpa on December 31, 2026?

Mar 30, 9:46 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM

61.22%chance

319

OptionVotes

NO

YES

119

4

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