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Prediction markets for Data Wall

Will the S&P500 be greater than $8000 in 2026?

Jan 5, 9:09 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

59.24%chance

323973

OptionVotes

NO

YES

121

83

Us market crash in 2026?

Jan 10, 6:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.86%chance

301815

OptionVotes

YES

NO

207

48

Will large amounts of GTA VI-related time-off requests be reported within two weeks of release?

May 27, 2:12 PMNov 20, 7:59 AM

31.26%chance

91154

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1483

674

In what year will an AI successfully beat The Talos Principle?

Jul 11, 9:07 PMDec 18, 10:59 PM

7408

OptionProbability

Later

2027

2028

2026

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2024

2025

28

20

20

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

1

1

Rippling wins its lawsuit against Deel by 2028?

May 12, 5:33 PMJan 1, 6:33 PM

52.98%chance

5183

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1061

942

Will Perplexity become profitable by EOY 2027?

May 19, 12:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.2%chance

7145

OptionVotes

YES

NO

236

42

Will the Shiller P/E Ratio exceed 50 by Jan 1, 2030?

May 14, 5:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.74%chance

3110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

117

86

Will MAGA represent more than 20% of the electorate after January 2029?

Mar 13, 10:36 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

24.75%chance

5103

OptionVotes

YES

NO

174

57

Will Model Intelligence diverge from consumer market share?

Apr 14, 12:44 AMApr 14, 12:30 AM

665

OptionProbability

Yes

N/A (unclear)

No

60

23

17

Resurgence or Consolidation? Where will the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) close at the end of June?

Jun 1, 2:14 PMJun 29, 8:59 PM

222

OptionProbability

99.16 to 99.83 - Bullish Resurgence

98.49 to 99.16 - holds steady near current levels

Greater than 99.83 - toward the psychological 100

Less than 98.49 - Bearish Breakdown

41

21

21

16

Will "Slowdown After 2028: Compute, RLVR Uncertaint..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 31, 9:36 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.88%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

941

A use case where a typical enterprise would need to have data in the cloud to fully enjoy the benefits of AI

Nov 29, 4:25 AM

00

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