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Prediction markets for Data Wall

Will the S&P500 be greater than $8000 in 2026?

Jan 5, 9:09 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

53.55%chance

344176

OptionVotes

NO

YES

107

93

Us market crash in 2026?

Jan 10, 6:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.15%chance

332134

OptionVotes

YES

NO

298

34

Will large amounts of GTA VI-related time-off requests be reported within two weeks of release?

May 27, 2:12 PMNov 20, 7:59 AM

31.26%chance

91154

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1483

674

In what year will an AI successfully beat The Talos Principle?

Jul 11, 9:07 PMDec 18, 10:59 PM

7408

OptionProbability

Later

2027

2028

2026

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2024

2025

28

20

20

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

1

1

Rippling wins its lawsuit against Deel by 2028?

May 12, 5:33 PMJan 1, 6:33 PM

52.98%chance

5183

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1061

942

Will Perplexity become profitable by EOY 2027?

May 19, 12:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.27%chance

9157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

236

42

Will the Shiller P/E Ratio exceed 50 by Jan 1, 2030?

May 14, 5:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.3%chance

3154

OptionVotes

NO

YES

166

60

Will MAGA represent more than 20% of the electorate after January 2029?

Mar 13, 10:36 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

24.75%chance

5103

OptionVotes

YES

NO

174

57

Will Model Intelligence diverge from consumer market share?

Apr 14, 12:44 AMApr 14, 12:30 AM

665

OptionProbability

Yes

N/A (unclear)

No

60

23

17

Will "Slowdown After 2028: Compute, RLVR Uncertaint..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 31, 9:36 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.88%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

941

Sid Meier's Alpha Centauri ON MANIFOLDS by EOy2029?

Jul 11, 8:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will Kaeberlein, Sinclair, Jose Luis Ricon, Zhavoronkov, Lada Nuzhna, Bryan Johnson, Guerente all DnD campaign by 2035?

Dec 3, 4:22 PM

10

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