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Prediction markets for David

What is going on with David Grusch's UFO claims?

Sep 18, 12:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

12877054

OptionProbability

Multiple counts of perjury

Massive fraud

Advanced human technology

Non-human intelligence

33

31

26

10

David Pakman stock (Permanent)

Oct 26, 5:32 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

453519

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1774

616

Is Whistleblower David Charles Grusch Telling The Truth About Non-Human Craft Recoveries?

Jun 6, 1:12 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.5%chance

182589

OptionVotes

NO

YES

976

942

David moves back to the Bay by October?

Jun 17, 5:08 AMSep 30, 11:59 PM

57.92%chance

62465

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1173

852

Will Sir David Attenborough (British broadcaster, biologist, historian and author) live to 100 years old?

Aug 3, 9:11 AMMay 8, 10:59 PM

67.5%chance

482129

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1309

794

Will David Sacks be found to have committed a felony before 2030?

Mar 12, 3:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.48%chance

151743

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1464

858

Will David Sacks ever be elected President?

Mar 21, 2:47 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

3.56%chance

151505

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2061

913

Will David Sacks hold a U.S. Cabinet-level position (including “acting” ) in Donald Trump's administration during 2025?

Jul 7, 1:38 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

24.64%chance

61400

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1749

572

Will David Schneider-Joseph's bet about Beta Amyloids and Alzheimer's end up true within 12 years?

Aug 17, 10:05 AMDec 31, 11:04 AM

41.37%chance

28993

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1128

1038

Will "Reliable Sources: The Story of David Gerard" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jul 11, 12:58 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

82.34%chance

11705

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1600

56

Will Père David's Deer (Elaphurus davidianus) become extinct in the current century?

Mar 13, 8:46 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

18.11%chance

4277

OptionVotes

YES

NO

697

410

David Holz is still day to day CEO at Midjourney through mid 2027

Mar 5, 9:32 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

53.14%chance

265

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1065

939

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