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Davos News

    Prediction markets for Davos

    OptionProbability

    Under 65 yo

    Straight

    Under 60 yo

    Has a STEM degree of any type

    Has any degree in physics, math, cs, or engineering

    Has a Wikipedia page created in 2023 or earlier

    Is an American citizen

    If male, taller than 5' 9", woman 5' 4" (~us 50th percentile)

    Wears glasses (ever in a recent-ish public photo)

    Speaks a foreign language

    Serious rumors of the actual name announced will appear on Twitter at least 12 hours before nomination (subjective-ish)

    Under 55 yo

    Has been a CEO

    Is married

    Under 50 yo

    Has children

    Self described person of color

    Has ethnic Asian heritage

    Has a regional or foreign accent (subjective) (not standard US; midlantic counts as an accent now)

    Software Engineering background

    Was not an American citizen at birth

    Went to a private high school

    Is known to have a dog or cat, or to have had one in the past

    Has a profile on google scholar (as of end 2023)

    Born in the cold season (oct-mar) in northern hemisphere or reverse if southern

    Citation count on google scholar is 1k+

    Has a github account which is known to be theirs (even w/out contributions)

    Has an active and identifiable twitter/x account at least a year at the time their name leaks as the new CEO

    Vegan or vegetarian (pescatarian, etc not included)

    Signatory of CAIS AI risk statement

    Has an acceptance or rejection from ycombinator in his/her history

    Has attended Davos

    Is publicly Atheist, agnostic, or a non-believer

    Grey hair (now, even partial grey like Sundar counts)

    Non-native English speaker

    CEO will take office after Q2 2027

    Born outside of the USA, Canada, and Europe

    Is an only child

    Born in the USA

    Has ethnic European heritage

    Diversity Points Score: 1

    Has visited or lived in China

    Has ever been divorced

    Has PhD

    Has a graduate or undergrad degree from any non US university

    Has a nickname and is often addressed by it (example: Larry for Lawrence)

    Under 45 yo

    Has written and published a book either academic or non

    Bald (Norwood Hamilton IV or more) in actual appearance at announcement

    Has ethnic Native people (any continent) heritage

    Has spent at least a month continuously in mainland China

    Has submitted and received 2+ patents

    Announcement of the appoint happens on a Friday

    Diversity Points Score: 0

    Under 40 yo

    Has Jewish heritage

    Neither parent attended college

    Was a college-level athlete

    Has any public mention of playing pickleball

    Has at least 3 children

    Is publicly Christian

    Diversity Points Score: 2

    Diversity Points Score: 5 or more

    Blue eyes

    Has a Wikipedia page created in 2015 or earlier

    Diversity Points Score: 3

    Diversity Points Score: 4

    If man, taller than 6'1", if woman taller than 5'10" (us ~95th percentile)

    Tattoo

    Has served in us govt

    Has passed a bar exam

    Female

    Born in the northeast

    Announcement of the appoint happens on a Monday

    Raised in a single parent family

    Left-handed

    Tattoo visible during inauguration speech

    Grew up in poverty

    Catholic

    Physics Background

    Green eyes

    Is Hispanic

    Both parents had PhDs

    LGBT*+

    Has military experience

    Has worked or attended school in Israel

    Is Muslim

    Unnatural hair colour

    Has ethnic African heritage

    Has the same family name as a previous google/alphabet CEO

    Has a physical disability

    Has been to space

    Has an ADOS background

    Pronouns are not standard

    Has a speech impediment

    Trans

    Is an AI

    Has a Manifold account

    97

    90

    90

    87

    84

    84

    84

    83

    71

    70

    69

    68

    65

    62

    62

    61

    58

    57

    56

    55

    53

    52

    52

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    49

    46

    46

    46

    45

    45

    44

    44

    43

    43

    40

    40

    38

    37

    37

    37

    36

    35

    35

    33

    32

    32

    31

    30

    29

    29

    29

    29

    29

    28

    28

    28

    28

    28

    27

    27

    27

    27

    25

    24

    23

    22

    22

    22

    22

    19

    19

    18

    18

    17

    17

    17

    17

    16

    15

    15

    13

    13

    11

    10

    9

    8

    7

    3

    3

    2

    2

    2

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1088

    919

    Will Donald Trump carry out an invasion of Greenland before 2029?

    Feb 27, 6:35 PMJan 4, 11:59 PM
    16.74%chance
    162498

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    223

    45

    "The Winds of Winter" character death market

    Sep 30, 1:37 AMDec 31, 12:26 AM
    81011

    OptionProbability

    Barristan Selmy

    Stannis Baratheon

    Aeron Greyjoy

    Margaery Tyrell

    Victarion Greyjoy

    Jon Connington

    Areo Hotah

    Lady Stoneheart

    Doran Martell

    Penny

    Daario Naharis

    Euron Greyjoy

    Rickon Stark

    Petyr Baelish (Littlefinger)

    Young Griff/"Aegon Targaryen"

    Brienne Tarth

    Davos Seaworth

    Asha Greyjoy

    Cersei Lannister

    Arianne Martell

    Rhaegal (dragon)

    Viserion (dragon)

    Theon Greyjoy

    Jaime Lannister

    Jon Snow (again)

    81

    72

    71

    69

    63

    53

    53

    53

    53

    50

    47

    45

    45

    45

    41

    41

    37

    34

    34

    34

    34

    34

    31

    31

    20

    Tesla sells humanoid robots to the public in 2027

    Jan 23, 6:04 PMJan 3, 11:59 PM
    34.99%chance
    12878

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1363

    734

    OptionProbability

    OpenAI significantly expands the scope of Ads in ChatGPT

    OpenAI removes ads in ChatGPT

    Anthropic adds Ads in one of their primary AI apps (currently Claude)

    70

    20

    10

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