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Prediction markets for Day Four

Will the U.S. have a free and fair presidential election in 2028?

Feb 13, 8:46 PMNov 8, 5:59 AM

73.72%chance

7511924

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2338

983

$5 Trillion company at the end of 2025?

Jan 7, 11:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.66%chance

316370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2894

345

A publicly-traded Google competitor's search-derived revenue exceeds Google's search-derived revenue for four consecutive quarters before 2028.

Oct 1, 2:25 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

18.94%chance

505679

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1425

852

Will there be a US-China war if Trump gets elected in 2024?

Jul 15, 8:26 PMJan 20, 10:59 PM

23.16%chance

125190

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1822

549

Technical default on US Treasury debt by 1/20/2029

Feb 11, 12:05 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

22.52%chance

264536

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1855

539

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.96%chance

123209

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6132

3376

Radiological "dirty bomb" attack anywhere in the world by 2029-06-30

Jun 22, 3:26 PMJun 22, 10:59 PM

24.72%chance

171206

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1745

573

Will Brazil implement a four-day work week before 2030?

Oct 12, 3:59 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

5.57%chance

10577

OptionVotes

YES

NO

700

85

Will Neuralink's PRIME study report any unanticipated adverse device reactions?

Jan 31, 8:39 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60.61%chance

17461

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1173

596

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

59.88%chance

19407

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

928

Police force in space any time through 2033

Sep 19, 5:03 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

8.85%chance

12346

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1282

944

By 2030, will schools with four day weeks be more common than those with traditional five day weeks in the US?

Jan 18, 12:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

28.41%chance

454

OptionVotes

YES

NO

184

99

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